We began this Gold Commentary in January 1996.
Due to many requests, we began to archive them in May 2000.
December 27 - "2002 - A BIG Year For Gold"
"At its spot future close of $US 349.20 on Friday, December 27, Gold has had its best annual percentage gain since 1979. Now, 1979 happens to be the year when Gold had its best percentage gain ever, so here is some data to put 2002 into better perspective."
December 20 - "So THIS Is What A Bull Market Looks Like!"
"Please note, at its spot future close of $US 345.90 on December 19, Gold had risen $US 90.30 from its April 2, 2001 low of $US 255.60. That's a rise of 35.33%. Even with this, there is still much talk about whether the fact that Gold has "bottomed" is yet proven"
December 13 - "OVER THE BRINK"
"The smallest bull has been the one between March 1993 and February 1996, during which Gold rose from $US 325 to $US 414 - that's a rise of 27.4%. The present bull market, which has seen Gold rise from $US 255 in April 2001 to its present level of $US 333, is a rise of 30.6% - SO FAR."
December 6 - "On The Brink Again"
"Once again, with the intraday high of $US 328.00 on December 6, Gold is knocking its head against the VITAL $US 330 level. Just as $US 300 was the Gold ceiling between late 1997 and March 2002, $US 330 has been the ceiling ever since Gold first tried and failed to penetrate it back in late May/early June."
November 29 - "Gold In A 'Deflation'"
"To "define" deflation as a general decline in prices is akin to defining gravity as an apple falling out of a tree. You cannot "define" a cause as being one of its minor effects. To do so, or to accept such a "definition", makes it impossible to discover what the cause actually is. That, of course, is the purpose of the modern definition of deflation (and inflation)."
November 22 - "The Holding Pattern"
"Yes, the headline could refer to the fact that Comex spot future Gold has moved a grand total of $US 0.00 this past week, and it does, but that is only one feature of what we propose to examine. What is "on hold" is the global financial situation of the world in general and the US in particular."
November 15 - "Why No 'Inflation' Must Be US Government 'Policy'"
"In modern 'economic speak', inflation is only a concern if the price of something you want to buy goes up and deflation is only a concern if the price of something you want to sell goes down."
November 8 - "Gold 'Priced' In U.S. Dollars"
"Now, if the US was a "banana republic", its currency would have dived a LONG time ago. Its Central Bank would NEVER have gotten away with lowering controlling interest rates to 40 year plus lows. But the US is NOT a "banana republic", even though its economy bears many similarities to one"
November 1 - "Waiting For Wednesday?"
"The "Wednesday" in question is, of course, Wednesday, November 6. This is the day after the US mid-term elections, and the day when the FOMC meets to decide on US interest rates."
October 25 - Running On The Smell Of An Oily Rag
"The continuing talk about "recovery" and good economic "growth" is being done in a climate of increasing unreality. It is as if these are words and phrases from a dead language attempting to connect to people who are no longer listening to them. The US has gone through a nearly three year period of wanting to believe that everything would turn out for the best."
October 18 - What's Best For Gold? Higher Rates Or Lower Rates?
"Should they try to distort rates, then at some point, the resulting distortion of the economy will overwhelm them and these three components of MARKET interest rates will re-emerge with a vengeance. That will result in MUCH higher interest rates"
October 11 - Gold Lease Rates Revisited
"If you are a Privateer or a GTW (Gold This Week) subscriber, you can take a look at the raw data on Gold lease rates and at the charts on our regular daily update. On Friday, October 11, this data was quite startling:"
October 4 - Hanging On For Dear Life
"The other source of "white knuckles", one which is now breaking through even the distraction of imminent war, is the desperate situation on US and world markets. As of October 4, here are the annual falls to date of some of the major world stock markets:"
September 27 - The Things That Are NOT Supposed To Happen
"Saying that Gold is "not supposed" to break loose in this situation has nothing to do with any type of rational economics or market system of finance, it has everything to do with preserving the financial and economic status quo."
September 20 - On The Brink - Let Us Count The Ways
"Behind the scenes, it is taking more and more "brinkmanship" on the part of Gold traders and Gold "market makers" to keep Gold comparatively subdued. Focussing on just one instance of this, consider Gold lease rates."
September 13 - So Near - And Yet
"By any rational expectation, the combination of a ballooning current account deficit and an implosion of foreign direct investment should have sent the $US plummeting and Gold rising - if not soaring. Instead, the opposite took place. "
September 6 - 9/11 (2002) - And After
"Can you sense things coming to a head? This week, with markets swooping and diving all over the world and with the war of words over whether or not to attack Iraq growing by the day, Gold has been inexorably rising. "
August 30 - Will They Or Won't They?
"So, what happens if he DOES go? Well, most people are looking back to what happened when the last war against Saddam began in January 1991. Back then, the immediate impact when the air war began on January 17, 1991 was a huge upturn on U.S. stock markets and a huge downturn in Gold."
August 23 - The Doldrums
"We are now one trading week from the long Labor Day weekend. Gold has come through its traditional "doldrums" period quite well so far. The U.S. stock markets have indeed staged a summer rally. The only problem is that they staged a pretty good imitation of a summer crash (in July) before embarking on that rally"
August 16 - The Ides Of August
"It would seem that the Administration's preoccupation with the U.S. economy is now back on the back burner. They passed the "Corporate Responsibility" act. Mr Bush had his economic "forum". The CEOs (at least some of them), signed on the dotted line. The stock markets have recovered. "Mission accomplished", now it's back to more pressing matters, like WAR."
August 9 - Apocalypse When?
"Come clean now, how many of you reading this page anticipated Gold trading on Friday, August 9 with a certain amount of unease? On August 7, Gold had spiked $US 8.80. On August 8, Gold gave nearly half of that back, falling $US 3.90. Early indications on "Access" trading and in Asia were not looking good."
August 2 - It's True Because I Say It's True
"The "Corporate Responsibility" act now signed into law by President Bush will not make dishonest corporate chiefs into honest ones. Nor will it transform incompetent ones into competent ones. The mere passage of the law implies, of course, that all Corporations have been irresponsible, and that the only thing which will make them responsible is the threat of handcuffs, chains, bars, and confinement."
July 26 - Why July 19, 2002 WAS "An Historical Turning Point"
"Yes, we did go on to say that everything was in place for an acceleration of the Gold bull market. IT WAS! The Dollar was crashing, U.S. stock markets were crashing. The U.S. corporate bond market had frozen solid. And EVERY SINGLE $US Gold chart we run pointed upwards. All that was necessary was for Gold to breach $US 330."
July 19 - A Potential Historical Turning Point - July 19, 2002
"The significance of Friday, July 19 is that it is the day when the FINAL remnant of the "Roaring 90s", the Dow, bit the dust. It is also the day when the "Powers That Be" lost control of the stock market, the currency, and the $US Gold price all on the same day."
July 12 - We're From The Government - We're Here To Protect You
"Americans have become afraid of their investment markets. Finally, more than two years after U.S. stock markets hit their peaks and after the Nasdaq index has ALREADY plummeted by 72.8%, U.S. investors are beginning to accept the unthinkable."
July 5 - Be Afraid - Be VERY Afraid!
"We think that this time, the "gold controllers" will fail. Like you, we don't know WHEN they will fail. Holding physical Gold in such circumstances is much LESS risky than not holding it. As for Gold stocks, in present circumstances one can either trade them or (we think this is a better approach) be willing to give up most or all of the profits so far in the expectation of much bigger profits to come."
June 28 - AWESOME - There's No Other Word For It
"Is there an escape from Mr O'Neill's burst of lunacy? Sure, other major currencies, like the Euro which almost reached parity with the Dollar on June 28. Is there an escape from the Global lunacy of thinking that one can create wealth on paper by a government vote? Sure - GOLD!"
June 21 - Their Cup Runneth Under
There are three MASSIVE financial events taking place over the coming week:
June 14 - THE "BUBBLE" BURSTS?
"The U.S. Treasury wants their "debt limit" increased by $US 750 Billion. The Congress is countering with an "offer" of $US 450 Billion. The Treasury is wailing that this will only keep them "going" until December. Meanwhile, the whole sorry bunch is trying to pass a debt limit increase in secret. Their problem is obvious."
June 7 - EEEEEEEK!! - IT'S A "BUBBLE"!!
"Yes, that's right, there have been several warnings out that the $US Gold market is in a "BUBBLE" situation. We have seen some very amusing analysis in our time, but this is REALLY funny."
May 31 - A Small Symptom Of A Much Bigger Problem
"How can Gold hitting a five-year high on the London AM fix ($US 327.25) on May 31 be a "small symptom"? Isn't the whole "Gold world" agog, exulting over their gains on Gold and Gold stocks one minute and then breaking out into a cold sweat over whether it can all keep going the next?"
May 24 - Almost Back To Where 1993 Started
"Now, with Gold's 2002 high closing price of $US 322.80 set on May 23, Gold has not yet reached its previous bear market low - $US 326 in March 1993. And we have learned technical treatises coming out from some Wall Street analysts (of the few which have noticed Gold at all) which state that Gold is now radically "overbought"! Give us the proverbial break!"
May 17 - The REAL Truth Is Out There
"Mr Crudele has found, in the "Financial Report of the United States Government" for 2001, a signed cover letter from Treasury Secretary John O'Neill which states that the U.S. government did not really have the $US 127 Billion surplus they reported in 2001. No, on an accrual basis, they actually had a deficit of - are you sitting comfortably? - $US 515 Billion"
May 10 - The Consequences Of Not Thinking
"Yes, these ideas are so simple that they are almost banal. But few people think about them any more, and VERY few of the people who do think about them apply them when they are deciding what to do in the markets. If they did, Gold would be a LOT higher than it is right now. Once just a few of them start, then Gold will start going up in earnest."
May 3 - Looking At A Fledgling Bull Market
"Last week (April 15 - 19) the $US index fell 1.43 points (118.02 to 116.59) or 1.2%. Gold rose $US 0.20 ($US 302.10 to $US 302.30) or 0.066%. This week (April 22 - 26) the $US index fell another 1.36 points(116.59 to 115.23) or 1.17%. Gold rose $US 9.30 ($US 302.30 to $US 311.60) or 3.08%."
April 26 - Truth Is - MUCH - Stranger Than Fiction
"By this we are NOT suggesting that the new Gold bull market will last as long as the two in the 1970s did, nor that Gold's gains during it will be similar to what the gains were in the 1970s. The gains could be smaller - or MUCH bigger."
April 19 - Signposts To Watch For
"Gold lease rates at these levels CANNOT be maintained much longer. THE signpost for a Gold breakout is going to be an upturn in these rates. If the upturn is a steep one, Gold might well REALLY take off. Watch all the items described in this analysis. But watch Gold lease rates closest of all."
April 12 - "History Is Bunk" - Henry Ford
"Here is a slice of history for you. This is a monthly bar chart of the Australian Gold Stock index (XGO) from its inception in January 1985 to April 12, 2002. Take a good look. You won't be able to see it in its present form much longer."
April 5 - Are We There Yet?
"If the market we follow on these pages had been any other market than the GOLD (Silver qualifies too) market, we would have long since called it a BULL market. But Gold is Gold."
March 28 - Once More Into The Breach - Dear Friends
"$US 300 is the Maginot Line of the financial PTB (Powers That Be) of the world. To understand why, it is necessary to take into account the whole history of Gold 'trading', specifically in the U.S."
March 22 - Stripping The Gears On The "Gold Governor"
"This week, Gold cycled around the $US 292-293 level until its $US 4.50 rise on Friday. So, $US 290 has held on the downside, now we will see if $US 300 will hold on the upside."
March 15 - Which Straw Will Break This Camel's Back?
"But what NO-ONE in government or on Wall Street is considering is the possible impact of a U.S. debt ceiling rise, or a funding impasse while political games are fought, on the rest of the world."
March 8 - Amazing Grace
"In the midst of it all stands Gold, right in the middle of an uptrend which has now been going since last April. If we had to nominate a key which would push Gold back towards $US 300 again, we would pick the announcment of the lifting of the U.S. Debt ceiling."
March 1 - What Are They Going To Do For An Encore
"The other major factor which has held Gold in place is the simple conviction, held even by most 'Gold bugs', that the financial powers that be will NEVER lose their grip on the precious metal."
February 22 - Another Central Banker Heard From
"The G-7 communique didn't say anything about Gold, but the Central Bankers obviously did behind closed doors. ...So, a week later, a Central Banker stepped forward and said that he could "imagine" selling Gold."
February 15 - The Great $US 300 Stumbling Block
"After nearly a decade of talking about paying off ALL its government debt, the U.S. government has not paid ANY of it off. Now, it wants to give itself permission to start borrowing big time again. How "confidence" in the U.S. economy and financial system can be maintained in the face of this is beyond The Privateer."
February 8 - The Sub $US 300 Gold Saga
"But no matter what happens in the short term, the delusions of omnipotence of the U.S. government have GUARANTEED the demise of their currency and their economy. Unless they radically change their policies, it's just a matter of time. Gold's sudden spurt is the clearest possible indicator that their time is running out."
February 1 - Strange - Someone Is Buying Gold!
"But, said the "world economic leaders", something screwy is going on. Why else would Gold be RISING along with a rising U.S. Dollar. And why else did Gold's rise ACCELERATE when the U.S. Dollar STOPPED rising on February 1?"
January 25 - Another Moment Of Truth For the U.S. Dollar
"If it can not, if the $US index fails at its July 2001 high, then Gold is set up to finally break out of its sub $US 300 prison. In a nutshell, on January 25, Gold went UP with a sudden acceleration of the Dollar. If the Dollar now fails at its 2001 highs and starts going down, Gold is almost certainly not going to go down with it."
January 18 - Lots Down - But Only One To Go
"Please grasp this clearly. The Bank of England has sold a large proportion of their Gold holdings at ROCK BOTTOM prices. The purpose of the Bank of England's Gold sales was to PRODUCE ROCK BOTTOM PRICES for Gold."
January 11 - The Year Of The BULL Market?
"As we enter 2002, the shear between financial appearance and financial reality has become too big to bridge. There are too many things "going wrong". The assurances of "business as usual" are too hollow to command attention."
January 4 - The Sub $US 300 Gold Saga
"As history shows, the capacity for human beings to hide their heads in the sand is very large, but it is FINITE. 2002 will define the limits of this capacity. The sub $US 300 Gold price, which has been the only constant of the global financial system over the last four years plus, will NOT survive this year."