This is our portal to past issues of our Gold Bottoms commentary. You will find links to the current commentary and the commentary for last week above.
December 31
"Gold, in $US terms and ONLY in $US terms, has sailed through it all - on a year end to year end basis - without registering any more than the most placid of ripples on the surface of an economic and political world which has been torn apart and rebuilt repeatedly."
December 21
"The action during the week has improved all the charts on this page. The daily bar chart did not dip below its moving averages (20 day and 40 day) and the shorter term average remains comfortably above the longer term average."
December 14
"But it doesn't really matter whether Gold spurts again THIS year. Technically, the charts are all pointing towards another upmove, whenever it occurs."
December 7
"What we CAN say for sure is that Gold's level immediately before 9/11 (spot future close $US 272.30) has proven to be a VERY important level. The price has now stalled just above it."
November 30
"Barring MASSIVE intervention, which cannot be ruled out when one is dealing with Gold, the next move should, by all technical criteria, be UP."
November 23
"After having traded in the $US 290s for a month, and then in the $US 280s for another month, Gold has now come (almost) all the way back to its pre 9/11 level."
November 16
"In essence, Gold is nearing the bottom of an upchannel with the support line drawn through the April and July 2001 bottoms. On both the weekly bar chart and the point and figure chart, the price will reach these uptrend lines at or about the $US 272.30 level"
November 9
"So, the financial damage caused after the terrorist attacks has been "fixed". The markets have made up all their losses and Gold has given back (most of) its gains."
November 2
"We can continue to say, as we did last week, that as long as spot future Gold closes at or above that $US 272.30 level, the uptrend which is now nearly seven months old (it began in April 2001) is still intact"
October 26
"As you can see on both bar charts (daily and weekly), at its close of $US 275.50 on Oct. 22, Gold had given back almost all of its post 9/11 gains."
October 19
"As we said at the start of this week's installment, Gold has found support at or just below the $US 280 level. Gold lease rates don't have much further to fall. Open interest on the Gold futures has fallen significantly this week."
October 12
"We are watching financial manipulation in ALL the paper markets, including the Gold paper markets. The monetary "authorities" have decided they have no other choice."
October 5
"To this point, the huge Gold surge of September 14 has stopped almost dead in its tracks. Over the week of Sept 24-28, spot future Gold rose $US 0.50."
September 28
"On September 21, the spot future close was $US 291.90. On October 5, it was $US 292.40. Gold is just about the only 'stable' investment left."
September 21
"There is only ONE reason left to prevent us from stating that the BEAR market in $US Gold which has lasted ever since February 1996 is now OVER. That one reason is the fact that spot future Gold has not - YET - closed ABOVE the $US 300 level."
September 14
"As you probably know, Gold trading in the U.S. was confined to a shortened session, using the ACCESS after-hours electronic trading system."
September 7
"Right now, it could be said that the only "investment class" that HAS bottomed is $US Gold. Global stock markets show absolutely no signs of "bottoming", especially now that the Dow has fallen substantially below 10000 "
August 31
"We've said it before and we will say it again. Physical Gold is the SAFEST investment media you can find right now. And right now, capital preservation should be the most important goal for ALL investors. "
August 24
"The efforts to "cap" the Gold price are reaching yet another crescendo, and STILL the $US Gold charts are hanging in there nicely."
August 17
"At the very worst, almost all downside risk has now been washed out of the $US Gold price. At best, we will be writing about plus $US 300 Gold in the very near future. Stay tuned."
August 10
"This "crossover" of moving averages on the weekly chart is VERY important. First, it is a prerequisite for any kind of a sustainable BULL market that the shorter-term rate be ABOVE the longer-term rate."
August 3
"Total open interest on the COMEX is threatening to go below the 100,000 level. Our open interest data goes back a decade and we can't find a number that low anywhere."
July 27
"Mr Greenspan has steadfastly maintained that he "sees no inflation". Since Wall Street is betting on another rate cut on August 21, there must be NO obvious signs of "inflation" - especially one as stark as another spike in the $US Gold price."
July 20
"The final signals needed for a $US Gold breakout would be a closing price above the June 26 close of $US 276.20 and/or a turnaround in Gold lease rates"
July 13
"The $US Gold price is now trying to establish a support point in the mid $US 260s - just like the one it established a month ago."
July 6
"What Gold has to do now is to consolidate at its present levels in the mid $US 260s and then begin to move up again. If it does that, then for the first time since late 1999, we have RISING support for Gold"
June 29
As you can see on the daily bar chart, a solid run of daily advances was abruptly terminated on June 27 - which just happens to be the day when the Fed lowered interest rates again."
June 22
"The outlook for the immediate future will be determined by next Wednesday, June 27, when the FOMC announces their decision to the world."
June 15
"A bottom we still have, a bull market or even a reliable uptrend we still do not have. Of course, at the risk of repeating ourselves, that's in terms of the U.S. Dollar."
June 8
"So, we have had an initial run up, we have had a correction, we have had almost two weeks of "range trading" to find solid support. And now, the Gold price has suddenly spurted AGAIN."
June 1
"...for the first time since February 2000. Gold has awakened in $US terms, it is not likely to go back to sleep this time. Stay tuned."
May 25
"What the $US 13.80 jump on May 18 did was to confirm that the bottom for $US Gold was IN. The "double bottom" around the $US 253-255 level set in August 1999 and again in April 2001 showed it clearly."
May 18
"Now, it remains only for Gold to establish an UPTREND. The first step is a close ABOVE $US 300. One more day like May 18 would give us that."
May 11
"Any spot future close above $US 272.30 would be a high for the year. Any close above $US 273.60 would put Gold in the "black" for the year. But the big one would be any spot future close over $US 275."
May 4
"Over the past three weeks, the open interest on all future contracts has dropped by about 20000 from 130000 (already low) to just over 110000. On May 1, the open interest figure was 110410. That's the lowest since the start of the current bear market back in February 1996."
April 27
"As any experienced investor will tell you, the BEST time to get established in ANY investment is during the calm before the storm. "
April 20
"Gold has certainly not yet come back to life, but it is now lying there with at least one eye open."
April 12 (Friday, April 13 was "Good Friday")
"Is this the 'calm before the storm'? We think it is. At the very least, the longer this inactivity goes on, the clearer it becomes that there is next to NO downside risk on owning physical Gold."
April 6
"Once again, there are technical signs that Gold might have found its support level, at the very least."
March 30
"We are slowly approaching the point at which $US Gold will have nothing left to do except dive below its 1999 lows or turn upward."
March 23
"Two weeks ago, $US Gold rose about $US 11. Last week, it fell about $US 14. This week, it has reverted to the "norm". In other words, it has just stood there - in $US terms, that is."
March 16
"$US Gold has fallen 5% in four days. Over the week, the $US index rose 3.6%. That, in a nutshell, is the main reason for the fall in the $US Gold price this week."
March 9
"...check out the Gold lease rates over the past 30 days. Gold lease rates have spiked severely. When was the last time this happened? That's right - late 1999."
March 2
"...note the moving average crossover on the daily chart. That's the first (admittedly tentative) "bullish" technical evidence we've seen for months."
February 23
"We think that the bottom first established when Gold hit its 1999 lows is well on the way to being CONFIRMED."
February 9
"Unless Gold gets back above the $US 260 level in a hurry, and so back above its recent trendline, it becomes increasingly likely that the 1999 lows are going to be tested."