Gold Bottom - And BULL Market - Study - Archives - 2002

This is our portal to past issues of our Gold Bottoms commentary. In March 2002, the "Gold Bottom" Commentary became a "Gold BULL MARKET" Commentary. You will find links to the current commentary and the commentary for last week above.

December 27
"Between the beginning of the year and the end of November, spot future Gold rose $US 37.80 from $US 279 to $US 316.80. In the MONTH of December (not yet over), spot future Gold has risen $US 32.40 from $US 316.80 to $US 349.20."

December 20
"Last week, Gold finally breached its $US 330 glass ceiling. This week, it has left it in the dust. Having breached this ceiling, which also, and not so coincidentally, happens to be the BOTTOM of Gold's previous (1993-96) bull market, Gold has now cleared the final hurdle to now accelerate on the upside"

December 13
"Gold has finally broken DECISIVELY above the $US 327.80 2002 high it set back on June 4. On December 13, spot future Gold closed at 333.20 after hitting an intraday high of $US 336. This is the FINAL confirmation of the Gold bull market."

December 6
"Gold is on the verge of cracking above its glass ceiling of $US 330. Once it does, we would expect the actual Gold price in the table above to catch up with the projected Gold price derived by the fall of the $US index very quickly."

November 29
"Note the VERY high volume, culminating on November 26 when 104,570 contracts were traded. Note also that despite all this activity, the open interest figure hardly moved at all for the week, declining a grand total of 230 contract (166,600 to 166,370)."

November 22
"This week, the US Dollar recovered slightly, and Gold climbed into the mid $US 320s, closing at $US 324.70 on November 12, before falling out of bed on the announcement that Saddam would 'comply' with the latest UN resolution on November 13."

November 15
"This week, the US Dollar recovered slightly, and Gold climbed into the mid $US 320s, closing at $US 324.70 on November 12, before falling out of bed on the announcement that Saddam would 'comply' with the latest UN resolution on November 13."

November 8
"Over the past two weeks, the $US index lost 3.23% points to close at 104.68. The $US Index is now only 0.26 points above its 104.42 2002 low set on July 19."

November 1
"This week, the strength in the $US Gold price has mirrored the weakness in the $US, which has in turn been caused by a growing certainty inside and outside the US that the Fed will cut rates when their FOMC convenes on November 6."

October 25
"Technically, the signs point to Gold having found support just above the $US 310 level on a spot closing basis. The best illustration of this is the longer-term (20 week) MA on the weekly Gold bar chart"

October 18
"When the Dow surged 347 points on Oct. 1, Gold fell $US 3.00. When the Dow surged 248 points on Oct. 10, Gold fell $US 3.10. When the Dow surged 378 points on October 15, Gold fell $US 5.20."

October 11
"On the daily bar chart, Gold has dipped below both 10 and 20 day moving averages for the first time since late August. On top of that, the shorter-term average has dipped just below the longer-term one."

October 4
"Gold has become a sideshow, but it is up on the week, rising from $US 319.70 on September 27 to $US 322.10 on October 4. Meanwhile, and all around it, paper markets continue to tumble."

September 27
"This was the week that Gold "almost made it". On September 24, spot future Gold closed at $US 326. It's 2002 high is $US 327.80 set on June 4."

September 20
"Two weeks ago, on September 6, spot future Gold closed at $US 320.40. This week, on September 20, spot future Gold closed at $US 322.20. Once again, Gold is within 2% of its 2002 highs. The correction is now nearly four months old. This is truly a "battle royal"."

September 13
"As you can see, Gold has moving up steadily ever since it dipped briefly back below the $US 300 level in intraday trading on August 1. First it established itself back above $US 310. Now it is trying to establish itself back above $US 320. But it has yet to establish itself above the intraday high of $US 329.70 it hit back on June 4."

September 6
"First the $US 300 level held. Then (with a couple of short sojourns underneath it) the $US 310 level held. Now, spot future Gold has climbed back above the $US 320 level. The Friday, September 6 close of $US 320.40 is Gold's highest closing level since June 26."

August 30
"Over the month of August, spot future Gold managed a rise of $US 9.60 ($US 303.20 to $US 312.80) or 3.17%. That actually beats the Dow, which fell by 73 points or 0.84% over the month. Finally, the $US index fell 0.61 points or 0.57% during August."

August 23
"This week, Gold was hit again, falling $US 7.70 to $US 306.00 on August 19 to once again approach the vital $US 300 level. There was little "fanfare" about this hit - attributed as usual to U.S. "banks and funds. In fact, few outside the Gold market itself even noticed it."

August 16
"Once again, Gold is ignoring the U.S. Dollar. This week, Gold lost 50 cents while the $US Index began falling again, down 1.53 points or 1.41%."

August 9
"Significantly, Gold has staged its big turnaround since the IMF announced their $US 30 Billion bailout package for Brazil. The announcement of this package has been judged instrumental in rekindling buying on world stock markets this week, as well as acting as support under the U.S. Dollar."

August 2
"So far this year, Gold is still further above its 2002 low than the $US index is below its 2002 high. But as you can see from the table above, the story since Gold hit its 2002 high on June 4 is QUITE different."

July 26
"WHOA! The end of the month can be a murderous time, especially when Wall Street and the money centre banks are staring down the barrel of horrible month-end reports, fragmenting derivatives positions, and prospective margin calls."

July 19
"Then on Friday, July 19 came the major awakening when the spot future price surged $US 6.80 to $US 323.90. That's the highest spot future Gold close since the $US 324.60 on June 7 - three days after the 2002 high (so far) close of $US 327.80 on June 4.

July 12
"On the charts, the thing that is still worrying a lot of technicians is the possibility of a "head and shoulders" - best seen on the weekly bar chart - the move back down towards $US 310 and the sideways action of the past two weeks being the "right shoulder". Possible? Yes, with Gold, anything is possible. But take a look at the longer-term weekly bar chart to put things in better perspective."

July 5
"Gold has broken below the "accelerated" uptrend lines on both daily and weekly bar charts. On the point and figure chart, it remains above the top of its up channel. The correction is clear, the underlying uptrend is equally clear. What happens now is simple. We must await evidence of solid support."

June 28
"If Gold's gain had exactly mirrored the loss on the $US index since March 27, Gold would have closed on June 28 at $US 333.60. That's almost exactly $US 20 HIGHER than where Gold actually closed on June 28."

June 21
"It is true that Gold's gains in $US terms have been "sluggish" this week given the accelerating slide of the U.S. Dollar. Here's one final perspective, comparing Gold's 2002 high set on June 4 with its level today."

June 14
"The resistance level on spot future Comex Gold is now fairly obvious - it's $US 330. Support is around $US 315 and below that, around $US 310-312."

June 7
"There's a very old market adage: 'A BULL market climbs a wall of worry'. It may not be familiar to many Gold investors, after all, it has been a while since Gold was in a bull market. But Gold investors, no matter how long they have been Gold investors, are very familiar with the 'worry' part."

May 31
"We are now happily sitting back and waiting for Gold to break through its next hurdle, which is the $US 330 level. Whether it takes a day, a week, or a month, the LONG TERM trends tell us that it WILL happen."

May 24
"Gold spent nearly two months consolidating between $US 300 and $US 310-312 and has now jumped to $US 322 in a week. The steady decline of the U.S. Dollar has finally been reflected in the $US Gold price this week."

May 17
"You may have been under the impression that the financial "powers that be" were in the process of losing control of Gold since it breached $US 300 way back on March 27. Actually, they are not - YET. What they ARE losing control of is the exchange value of the U.S. Dollar."

May 10
"Having been reading these pages, you know that we think that the Gold bull market has now begun. On "this trip" above $US 300 (Gold also poked above $US 300 in February), the spot future price has been at or above the $US 300 level since it rose $US 5.40 on March 27 to close at $US 302.20. That was just over 6 weeks ago."

May 3
"In fact, ALL technical signs point to Gold continuing to rise. The most interesting indicator we follow is the one we highlighted here last week, and that is Gold lease rates."

April 26
"The analysis below was written on April 25, when spot future Gold had jumped $US 3.80 to $US 308.10. We need add nothing to it, except for the fact that Gold followed up that $US 3.80 increase with another $US 3.50 jump on April 26. April 25 - Spot Future Gold $US 308.10. April 26 - Spot Future Gold $US 311.60. Bull Market? We think so."

April 19
"Well, April is now three weeks old and Gold has been trading ABOVE $US 300 almost the entire month. The problem is, of course, that it is still only just above $US 300. Since Gold poked its nose above $US 300 back on March 27, here are the weekly spot future closes"

April 12
"The $US Gold uptrend is now entering its second year. $US Gold has been frozen in place around the $US 300 level for two weeks now. Gold most definitely bottomed. Now all we need is a confirmed bull market."

April 5
"The significance of $US 300 right now is one of timing. If it holds and then Gold goes on to set new highs in the present uptrend, the BULL market is validated. If that happens, the potential for a BIG upmove increases greatly."

March 28
"This is Gold SECOND poke over $US 300 during this uptrend. Will THIS ONE be the one which changes the uptrend into a BULL market? Given the fact that the effort to keep Gold down is unabated, but is having less and less effect, we think it will be."

March 22
"For years, we have been calling this page the 'Gold Bottom' study. Since February, when Gold poked its nose above $US 300, we have been calling it the 'Gold Bottom or Bull Market' study. We'll change it to the Gold BULL MARKET study if and when Gold consolidates above $US 300."

March 15
"Technically, Gold could go either way in the short term. As long as it stays above $US 280, the uptrend is intact. And as long as Gold stays below $US 300, the Gold bottom which has been building ever since September 1999 remains just that, a bottom."

March 8
"So, the renewed interest in Gold has died down as the stock markets have surged higher. How long that can continue in the face of the worsening bloodbath on U.S. Treasury bond markets is not seen as being an item of concern."

March 1
"U.S. investors are STILL not looking at Gold, not as long as the stock markets look promising. But even with that, Gold is once again hovering around its post 1997 resistance at $US 300."

February 22
"If they can't, (get Gold above $US 300 before the U.S. starts trading on Feb. 19) then Gold may languish at or below $US 300 for another week or even month."