This is our portal to past issues of our Gold Bull Market (and Gold bottom) commentary. In March 2002, the "Gold Bottom" Commentary became a "Gold BULL MARKET" Commentary. You will find links to the current commentary and the commentary for last week above.
December 29
"The lure of Wall Street is still there. The Dow is up more than 25% this year, but Gold is competing very well indeed, thank you. Once Gold consolidates ABOVE its previous bull market high, it is set to accelerate."
December 19
"Consider the fact that despite a 2003 gain of 23.22% the Dow is STILL below the level it was back in late March 2002 when Gold finally decisively breached the $US 300 level. Gold is now more than $US 100 higher than it was then."
December 12
"The "mini correction" this week followed by the close at a new high will be eating away at that lack of confidence. Don't forget, it took almost six months for Gold to rise from $US 300 to $US 310 in late 2001 - early 2002. So far, Gold has only spent two weeks above $US 400."
December 5
"In the last week of November, spot future Comex Gold poked its head above the $US 400 level twice in intraday trading but did not manage to CLOSE above $US 400. Over the first week of December, Gold has closed above $US 400 for all five trading days and has closed on December 5 at a new 2003 multi-year high of $US 406.40."
November 28
"Given the steadily sinking US Dollar, combined with the steadily sinking appetite of foreign private buyers for US financial "assets", a Gold price of $US 400 plus is an absolute CERTAINTY."
November 21
"The fact that Gold WILL break through $US 400 is CERTAIN as long as the uptrend exists. When that will happen we cannot know, but we strongly suspect that the days of obtaining a troy ounce of Gold at a price below $US 400 are severely limited."
November 14
"Technically, this is the start of another upleg. This leg may stall or even correct at $US 400, but it's as good a market bet as there has been for a LONG time that it's not going to STOP at $US 400."
November 7
"So far, Gold has lost $US 5.50 or about 32% of its gains of two weeks ago. Not bad in the midst of an avalanche of US Government statistics purporting to "prove" that the US economy is recovering fast."
October 31
"Five weeks after it reached that level, Gold remains in a tight range just below $US 390. First a close above $US 390, then a close above $US 400, then it's off to the races."
October 24
"After a month long correction, Gold is once again poised at the threshhold of $US 400. This time, we think it will make it."
October 17
"$US 370 is now established as support on all three charts. But this is Gold, the investment which the monetary powers that be do NOT want to rise. We'll see what happens."
October 10
"These Gold falls in terms of "foreign" currencies are a direct reflection of the fact that Gold is down in $US terms even though the $US has continued to FALL in terms of all other major world currencies."
October 3
"War has once again been declared on Gold. One doesn't have to look far to find the reason. The US Dollar has been sliding fast ever since the Dubai G-7 meeting two weeks ago. This week, it was threatening to drop below its previous 2003 lows. "
September 26
"The G-7 may have given the "green light" for the $US to go down against its major trading partners, but the Gold "powers that be" have not yet given the "green light" for Gold to rise against the US Dollar. "
September 19
"When spot future Gold broke through the $US 380 for the first time in 2003 on September 9, the $US index closed at 96.43, down 0.77 on the day. On September 19 when Gold closed ten cents above its September 9 close, the $US index closed at 95.34, down 0.97 on the day."
September 12
"Please note that Gold was rising with a falling US Dollar until it hit its $US 381.80 high on Tuesday. On Friday, when Gold fell $US 3.90 and lost contact with the $US 380 level, the US Dollar fell again. The Dollar will be at the center of attention for the rest of this month."
September 5
"In such an atmosphere, the performance of Gold is remarkable, so far, for its reticence. The $US 379 2003 high is a big hurdle. Once it is cleared, look out above."
August 29
"As you can see on the daily bar chart, the two-week consolidation between $US 360 and $US 365 has been shattered this week. Gold jumped straight to the $US 370s and in early trading on August 29, got very close to the $US 380s."
August 22
"The fact that Gold hardly moved in $US terms this week, being down $US 0.10 on the week, is NOT insignificant given the performance of the US Dollar. Measured by the $US index, the Dollar had its best week in more than two years."
August 15
"With the new 2003 multi-year highs on US and Australian Gold stocks, investors have shown that they expect Gold to break out of its doldrums very soon."
August 8
"Given the situation, the "doldrums" for Gold should be nearly over too. The "fund selling" which forced Gold down in the leadup to the Treasury auctions was NECESSARY, but it had little or no effect on physical Gold (or Gold stock) investors."
August 1
"On the daily chart, you can plainly see that the old market saw: "up by the stairs, down by the elevator", doesn't apply in this case. Gold went up by the elevator, it has come down by the elevator."
July 25
"Up until the end of last week, the $US was "weathering" the carnage on the US Treasury debt market quite well. Not so this week. This week, the $US index has fallen 1.70 points from 96.82 to 95.12."
July 18
"Gold has found solid support in the low $US 340s. Another rally could start at any time. The markets to watch are the currency markets and the bond markets, specifically the Treasury bond markets. So far, the $US has weathered the sell of in the Treasury markets. That can't last."
July 11
"On the daily chart, you can see that Gold is in a "sine wave" downwards pattern with the drop in June/July being about half the rise in May. Please note that the low for this downmove (on a spot future closing basis) is $US 343.90 - set on June 26 and equalled exactly on July 9."
July 4 Holiday - No commentary
June 27
"Two weeks ago, when Gold suddenly dipped $US 9.60 in a day, money was pouring INTO Treasury debt paper. Over the past week, when the Fed actually cut and Gold fell $US 10.80 on the week, money was pouring OUT OF Treasury debt."
June 20
"The bond bubble will burst when investors realise that US rates CAN'T fall any further. That could happen on June 25 or at any time after that. And of course, when the bond bubble bursts, the housing bubble won't be far behind. That doesn't leave much - except Gold."
June 13
"Gold is back under control - you can see it right there on the charts. The "damage" was done on Tuesday, June 10 when the Comex spot future swan-dived $US 9.60 to close at $US 352.20."
June 6
"The month of May was actually the best month for Gold so far this year. Over the month, Gold rose $US 25.10 or 7.40% from $US 339.40 to $US 364.50. That is better in both nominal and percentage terms than Gold's rise in January - up $US 20.10 or 5.77% from $US 348.20 to $US 368.30."
May 30
"This week, Gold is down - marginally - in terms of three of the four currencies and up in terms of Yen. The Bank of Japan is shelling out TRILLIONS (4 TRILLION in May) to keep the Yen down against the Dollar."
May 23
"Gold is "gap up" in terms of $US, $A, Yen, ane Euros over the past week. That is something which has not been seen since Gold was "lifting off" in December last year. $US Gold has not yet reached its February 4 closing high of $US 379, but it got to within $US 6.80 of that level on May 21."
May 16
"Over the past week, with the $US index falling another 1.83 points to a new 2003 low of 95.11 on May 8, Gold has managed to crawl back into the "black" for 2003."
May 9
"Over the past week, with the $US index falling another 1.83 points to a new 2003 low of 95.11 on May 8, Gold has managed to crawl back into the "black" for 2003."
May 2
"This week. the $US index set new 2003 lows and confirmed the next leg of its BEAR MARKET. As stated at the beginning of this analysis, $US Gold has only recovered just over one-third of its 2003 correction and is still below the level at which it started the year."
April 25
"The technical signals are slowly accumulating. With the Iraq war now over and the "peace" as chaotic as it was always going to be, $US Gold is forming a base for another upmove. Right now, the $US index is only 0.70 points above its 2003 low close of 97.92 set on March 10."
April 18
"In this climate, Gold is still groping for but has not yet found a solid support level from which to launch another move upward. We await a spot future close above the $US 330 level as the first solid evidence that such a point is in place."
April 11
"On the point and figure chart, Gold has turned up from the $US 321.50 low set on April 7. We do not yet, however, have a genuine support formation on the chart. The senior uptrend line, anchored back at the April 2001 Gold bottom, is presently at about $US 318."
April 4
"While the war progresses, all we can do is wait for confirmation of support for Gold. the US is presently "fighting" on so many fronts, military, geo-policital, financial, fiscal, and economic, that a reverse somewhere is a certainty. It's simply a matter of which, and when"
March 28
"By all the measures on the tables above, and on all the charts, Gold is HUGELY "oversold". Nonetheless, it remains comfortably above the bottom of its post April 2001 upchannel. As long as this channel remains intact, so does the Gold bull market."
March 21
"The war is on. Shock and awe has gone in - twice. And Gold has fallen all the way down to $US 326.10. The last $US 6.90 of this fall came in New York after the London market had closed for the weekend and it came in perfect unison with the first wave of the "shock and awe" strikes going in on Baghdad."
March 14
"The Dollar looked like it was spiralling down out of control this week when the $US index closed at a new 2003 low of 97.29 on March 10. But the rumour about the "surrender" of the Iraqi generals did more than just knock Gold down, it pushed the Dollar (and US stock markets) up."
March 7
"For the first time since Gold began its big run up at the end of November 2002, the percentage fall of the $US since Gold broke definitively through $US 300 almost a year ago is bigger than the percentage $US Gold price rise over the same period."
February 28
"... first support on the $US 1 x 3 point and figure chart is at about $US 336. Below that is the major trendline which stretches back to Gold's lows in April 2001. That line, the fainter green line on the chart, is presently slightly below the $US 320 level. Gold could go all the way back there WITHOUT violating its uptrend and therefore its $US bull market."
February 21
"Spot future Gold hit its intraday high so far this year at $US 384.00 on February 5. That was just before the Nymex hiked its margin requirements. Since February 6, total open interest on the Comex has plummeted from 245,680 contracts to a low of 194,980 contracts on February 20 - that's down 20.6%"
February 14
"Last week, it was Mr Powell's speech to the UN on February 5 purporting to show that a war with Iraq was inevitable that knocked Gold off its highs. This week, it is the roadblocks to war put in place by the Europeans and now Mr Blix himself saying that there is no evidence of WMD that has knocked Gold down almost $US 20? There WILL be war - sell Gold! There WON'T be war - sell Gold! Very droll, don't you think?"
February 7
"Between late March and late November 2002, Gold rose a mere 4.83%. Between the end of November 2002 and February 4, 2003, Gold had risen 19.6%. That's a HUGE acceleration. Gold was due for a correction. We now have the first signs that we are going to get one."
January 31
"You will find charts of the $US index and Gold here for comparison. What you are seeing is not a move away from "normalcy", as most of the "gold is overbought" people would have it, but a move back TOWARDS normalcy."
January 24
"Gold has now closed higher for eight consecutive weeks, and this week, it broke through the TOP of its post April 2001 upchannel."
January 17
"Gold is now threatening to break above the TOP of its post April 2001 upchannel. $US 300 has long since been left in the dust, but the Gold $US 329.70 intraday high of early June 2002 was only exceeded in December, and now, Gold is almost 9% above that level. The Bull market is alive, well, and threatening to accelerate."
January 10
"... technically, there has not been a reason to sell Gold since it began to rise from its April 2001 lows around the $US 255 level. Every high since then has been higher, every low has been higher."
January 3
"At the beginning of 2002, this page was still titled "Gold BOTTOM Commentary". That changed in mid February 2002 the title was changed "Bottom Or Bull Market?". And finally on May 3, 2002 the title was changed to its present one "The Gold BULL MARKET This Week"."