This is our portal to past issues of our Gold Bull Market (and Gold bottom) commentary. In March 2002, the "Gold Bottom" Commentary became a "Gold BULL MARKET" Commentary. You will find links to the current commentary and the commentary for last week above.
December 31
"Thus, in sharp contrast to what happened in both 2002 and 2003, Gold has ended 2004 by rising LESS than the $US (as measured by the $US index) has fallen. Over the year, Gold is up 5.36% in $US terms - its fourth consecutive year of gains."
December 24 - Christmas Eve, no commentary
December 17
"Gold could retreat all the way back to the $US 400 level without breaching the uptrend. While we do NOT thing this will happen, the money managers out there are getting desperate and desperate men do desperate things. The point is that even if it DOES happen, Gold's bull market will remain perfectly intact."
December 10
"Gold is down from $US 456.00 to $US 433.90. That's down $US 22.10 or 4.85%. Gold hasn't been rising faster than the US Dollar fell, but when the US Dollar rally came, Gold sure fell faster than the US Dollar rose (as did Silver!)."
December 3
"For the first three trading days of December, spot future Comex Gold hit an intraday high of $US 456.00. On Friday, December 3, spot future Gold CLOSED at that intraday high of $US 456.00 - up $US 5.60 on the day."
November 26
"Notably, the volume on the Comex over the three days of the week when Gold did change were huge, culminating with a MASSIVE 290000 contracts on Wednesday, November 24. This is certainly the biggest one day volume on Comex Gold that we have seen."
November 19
"For three weeks, we have been saying that: 'The final signal of the second major leg in $US Gold's post 2001 bull market awaits a spot future close of $US 440 or higher.' This week, Gold got there."
November 12
"With the spot future Gold price close now more than $US 10.00 above its April 2004 highs ($US 438.30 now - $US 427.80 then), there is now little doubt that the next leg on the Gold bull market has commenced. We await only a spot future close above $US 440"
November 5
"As we said here last week: 'The final signal of the second major leg in $US Gold's post 2001 bull market awaits a spot future close of $US 440 or higher.' That would act as the final confirmation of the (dashed) uptrend line on the chart, and signal a rock solid LONG TERM $US Gold bull market."
October 29
"The final signal of the second major leg in $US Gold's post 2001 bull market awaits a spot future close of $US 440 or higher - $US 11.60 above the close on October 29. This situation is as simple as that."
October 22
"In neither 2003 or 2002 did Gold manage to take out highs reached earlier in the year in October. In both years, new highs were set in November/December. Gold has five trading days left in October 2004 to outdo its progress at the same stage of the previous two years. Even with the political imperatives of the upcoming election, we'd say its chances of setting new 2004 highs this coming week are good."
October 15
"The bottom line is simple. Will Gold stay below its 2004 highs until November 2 or won't it? The point is, even if it does stay below the highs until the election, the chances of it staying below them after the election are somewhere between VERY slim and none."
October 8
"It took five weeks for Gold to break out above its recent $US 400-410 trading range. It has taken only one more week for Gold to break above the $US 420 level. Indeed, Gold's spot future close of $US 423.10 on October 8 is the highest since Gold reached its 2004 spot future closing high (so far) of $US 427.80 on April 1."
October 1
"Despite all the political headwinds in its path - G-7 meeting, upcoming IMF/World Bank meeting, US Presidential election - Gold in $US terms has broken out of the doldrums and is within 2% of its 2004 highs. What this week has given us is yet another confirmation of the post May 2003 "recovery" of the $US Gold price."
September 24
"A Gold spot future close above $US 413, and especially one above $US 416, would reaffirm the higher-highs higher-lows of the gradual recovery of the Gold bull market, a recovery which has been going since the May 2004 lows."
September 17
"In 2003, Gold hit a high in the low 380s in February. It took until November for that high to be decisively exceeded. This year, Gold hit highs around the $US 430 level in February and again at the beginning of April. This time, the climb back towards those highs has been even more sluggish."
September 10
"The clamp being put on any important or indeed rational financial and/or economic debate (a pre-requisite for any modern election campaign) has now locked most world markets into "holding patterns". We use this term advisedly. Neither of the major US candidates want to see any MAJOR financial ructions between now and November 2."
September 3
"Now, Mr Bush has greatly upped the ante. In his acceptance speech, he came up with the rosiest of rosy scenarios for almost every aspect of life within the US. The fact that his "vision" was refuted by the FACTS bothered him no more than it did Mr Greenspan."
August 27
"With all this, Gold has come off the four month high in $US terms set a week ago and slowed down significantly in terms of other major world currencies. You can see the results on the charts on this page, especially the $US 1 x 3 point and figure chart."
August 20
"The surprising part of the equation is not that Gold is now moving back towards the level at which it started the year, it is that Gold is not yet setting new 2004 highs and indeed pushing towards highs last seen in the heady days of the end of the 1970s. The parallels with the 1970s and today are as numerous as they are obvious."
August 13
"To put this in perspective, back on April 1 when Gold hit its 2004 high of $US 427.80 (spot future closing basis), Oil closed at $US 34.27 a barrel. Since then, Gold is down 6.76% in US Dollar terms while Oil is up 35.92%."
August 6
"Mr Greenspan's testimony, the fundamental aim of which was clearly to prop up the Dollar, produced a 2.79 point rise in the $US index. With almost all of the damage having been done on August 6, the index has now given back 1.68 points or 60% of that gain. Inconveniently, for Mr Greenspan, reality has intervened once again."
July 30
"The pressure which the international financial system is under is well illustrated by the growing "shear" between the $US oil price and the $US Gold price. Oil set new highs on Friday, rising $US 1.05 to $US 43.80. Gold did nothing on the week, while rising $Us 4.00 on Friday."
July 23
"At the end of last week, the $US index was hitting new post February lows. On Friday, July 16 alone, it dived 0.90 to 87.30. What's different this week? Absolutely nothing in the real world. However, in the US Congress, Mr Greenspan has spoken!"
July 16
"In the lead up to the Fed's rate rise on June 30, all the talk on Wall Street was about how the rise would "strengthen" the Dollar. When that didn't happen, there was a temporary silence while the financial "gurus" cast about for something else which would "raise" the US Dollar."
July 9
"The most important feature on the weekly chart is the fact that the 20 and 40 week moving averages have now converged. On the longer-term chart, the longer-term average is now above the shorter-term average - the crossing point being about $US 399"
July 2
"On June 29, the first day of the meeting, the day before the decision on US rates was to be announced, spot future Comex Gold fell $US 8.50 - sliding back below the $Us 400 level in the process AND back below its 200-day moving average."
June 25
"As we have said many times here in Gold This Week, the really BIG Gold bull markets always occur in a climate of rising interest rates, especially in a climate where rates have been grotesquely distorted below their market rate for a considerable period."
June 18
"With the $US 10.50 jump in the spot future Gold closing price on June 17-18, there is now a second support area for Gold established. The first support area was in the mid $US 370s established in mid May. This support area is in the mid $US 380s established over the period June 9 - 16."
June 11
"Yet even with the panapoly of "economic variabilities" available to government statisticians, they still can't get a Producer Price Index figure to their liking. It must be a WHOLE lot worse than even the least starry eyed analyst on Wall Street thinks it is."
June 4
"This week, $US Gold had its first challenge of the $US 400 level - its intraday high on June 1 was $US 399.00 - and then slipped back to just below $US 390 before closing the week with a loss of $US 3.10."
May 28
"For the moment, things are "stable". Oil prices are back below $US 40.00. US stock and bond markets have come out of their slide. The US Dollar is falling, but so far only gradually. To keep all these balls in the air until the end of June will be a MAJOR achievement."
May 21
"But the main conjecture, which is being discussed mostly in private - because few are game to start speculating about this one in public - concerns the shape of the US yield curve. The US yield curve, the difference between short-term rates and long-term rates, is much steeper than anywhere else."
May 14
"Meanwhile, as pressure under interest rates grows, the pressure to unwind the US Dollar 'carry trade' grows with it. As the carry trade unwinds, the LAST prop under the US Dollar erodes."
May 7
"As we say in Australia, the jobs report is a 'furphy' - 'furphy n.(pl.furphies) 1 a false report or rumour. 2 an absurd story. •adj.(furphier, furphiest) absurdly false, unbelievable: that’s the furphiest bit of news I ever heard.'"
April 30
"Despite the big pullback of Gold and silver over the past month, their performance in comparison to stocks, bonds and Dollars over the past two plus years has been stellar indeed. This is despite the HUGE recovery on the US stock markets last year."
April 23
"Gold's recent rise in terms of all major world currencies stalled on March 29. Its latest rise against the $US stalled on April 2. Its challenge of its all time high Euro position stalled on April 13 - when Gold fell $US 13.10. Gold has been to the brink and then backed off."
April 16
"The 'solution', for the financial powers that be, is the same as it has been for a long time now. Hit the Gold (and Silver) price. If you cannot cut off that avenue of retreat from the financial system, then make it as unattractive as possible."
April 9
"Two weeks ago, we stated that a close of $US 429 or higher (spot closing basis) would signal the END of the correction and the start of the next upleg on the $US Gold bull. We didn't get it"
April 2
"Even more to the point, so far in 2004, Silver is up 36.74% in $US terms. Gold is up 1.32% in $US terms in 2004 so far. The "suppression order" on Gold is still out - BIG TIME."
March 26
"Gold has now been going up significantly against ALL major world currencies for two weeks. It's gains for 2004 are still less than the US Dollar's gains (as measured by the $US index) but it is catching up fast."
March 19
"Now, after more than a month of trading each side of the $US 400 level, with a brief foray below $US 390 on an intraday basis, Gold has broken clear of $US again."
March 12
"'Miraculously', given the gyrations of the US Dollar over the period, Gold in US Dollar terms has been locked in a trading range of a few Dollars each side of the $US 400 level for the past three weeks."
March 5
"Unfortunately, for the financial powers that be at any rate, 'volatility' reared its ugly head once more on March 5 with the big fall on the $US index and the big rise of the $US Gold price. Silver is even more 'volatile'."
February 27 - No update due to local storms and power and phone outages.
February 20
"I have been compiling Gold charts for more than 20 years. I do not remember anytime over that entire period where an upturn was followed by a downturn on a $US 5 x 3 chart inside a week. This is REAL 'volatility'."
February 13
"It must be emphasised on a regular basis, since the Gold correction of March/April 2003 - which took place in terms of ALL currencies - Gold has resumed its bull market only in US Dollar terms. In terms of the other major currencies, it has been trading sideways."
February 6
"Those two big selloffs served to push Gold back towards and then below $US 400, "clearing the decks" for the G-7 to meet without having to look over their shoulder to THE alternative to the currencies they were discussing."
January 30
"Now, right after an FOMC meeting in which a small change in the wording of the press release sets off a storm of speculation that the Fed might raise rates "sooner" than expected, Gold falls $US 16.10 in one day. Volatile, isn't it?"
January 23
"If $US 405-407 does not hold, then Gold is in all likelihood going to challenge $US 400 and may drop below it. Please note that the steepest uptrend lines on the weekly bar chart and point and figure chart support Gold at between $US 395 and $US 405."
January 16
"The main item of importance to keep in mind is that Gold broke decisively above its previous bull market high BEFORE this "correction" took place. This, plus the fact that ALL Gold's bull market trendlines are still perfectly intact, indicates that the bull market is still perfectly intact."
January 9
"The TOP of Gold's previous bull market has NOT caused a correction in the present $US Gold price run. But as fast as Gold is advancing in $US terms, it is still lagging far below 2003 highs in terms of the currencies which are rising the fastest against the $US. We still await Gold's REAL boom."
January 2
"The spot future Gold close of $US 424.80 on January 5 is the highest since spot future Gold closed at $US 427.00 on December 6, 1988. Gold's 1996 bull market high has been decisively breached."