This is our portal to past issues of our Gold Bull Market (and Gold bottom) commentary. In March 2002, the "Gold Bottom" Commentary became a "Gold BULL MARKET" Commentary. You will find links to the current commentary and the commentary for last week above.
December 30
"Government Treasurers and Central Bankers have many areas of disagreement, but there is one area where they are all but unanimous. That is in their antipathy to Gold, especially in its role as a challenger to their monetary systems and their debt-backed currencies.
December 23 - Christmas - No commmentary this week
December 16
"Government Treasurers and Central Bankers have many areas of disagreement, but there is one area where they are all but unanimous. That is in their antipathy to Gold, especially in its role as a challenger to their monetary systems and their debt-backed currencies.
December 9
"Has $US 500 been left behind? Not quite yet. By way of comparison, look at what happened the first time Gold broke through $US 300 and then $US 400 in this bull market. You can see those points in the most long-term format on our $US 5 x 3 point and figure chart."
December 2
"Now comes the test. Ultimately, the test is not to see IF Gold can break free of this trading range. Inevitably it can and it will. The test is to see how long it takes Gold to break decisively above the top of the range."
November 25
"Normally, these developments do NOT go hand in hand with an inexorably rising $US Gold price. Yet they are. Something has to give, and the financial asset community are hoping fervently that it will be the $US Gold price, especially at or about the $US 500 level."
November 18
"Last week, Gold had reached new bull market highs against almost every major currency in the world - except the US Dollar. This week, that little anomaly had been well and truly expunged with Gold soaring $US 16.80 to its highest spot close since January 1988."
November 11
"Last week, there was "sustained fund selling" on the US Gold futures markets. That was last week. This week, Gold has recovered more than half of its $US correction losses, and all in the face of a $US Dollar index which has set new 2005 highs almost every day"
November 4
"This week, the Fed raised rates again and the ECB didn't. The $US index broke through the 91 level for the first time since May 20, 2004, more than a month before the Fed STARTED raising rates."
October 28
"Gold and the other markets took a bit of a back seat this week, overshadowed by the amazing derring-do surrounding the US government and in particular, the Bush Administration. Mr Bush started the week by doing what a lot of people expected him to do, he nominated Ben Bernanke as Mr Greenspan's successor as Head Fed."
October 21
"...the US Dollar just continues to rise and rise. On October 21, the $US index rose 0.42 points to close at 90.18. This is only the eighth close above the 90.00 level this year and only 0.15 below the 2005 high of 90.33 set on July 5."
October 14
"Of course, the louder the chorus from the mainstream media about the "possibility of Gold climbing to $US 500 by the end of the year", the more headwind Gold is running into. There is good technical reason for the "baulking" short of $Us 480 too."
October 7
"After the minor dip in the spot future close on Monday, the close didn't move at all for two whole days. We cannot remember the last time that the spot future Gold price closed unchanged for two days in a row."
September 30
"Now, on September 29, Gold has closed above $US 470 (at $US 472.30 on a spot future basis). That puts the $US 5 x 3 Gold chart three clear "X"s above its previous (December 2004) bull market high and RE-CONFIRMS the uptrend line established when Gold closed above $US 440 in November 2004."
September 23
"On September 21, Gold had risen by nearly $US 40.00 since it closed $US 430.70 on August 29, the day that the New Orleans levees were breached and the REAL devastation began and that the oil price surged $US 2.61 to an all time high of $US 69.81."
September 16
"At its spot future close of $US 460.30 on September 16, Gold has now exceeded the December 3, 2004 high by $US 4.30. That's not enough to be decisive (see below) but it is a STRONG signal for a new upleg on the bull market."
September 9
"Gold has now risen by nearly $US 20.00 since it closed $US 430.70 on August 29, the day that the New Orleans levees were breached and the REAL devastation began and that the oil price surged $US 2.61 to an all time high of $US 69.81."
September 2
"By dint of extraordinary efforts - not least of which was an extroardinary dive in Gold lease rates on September 2 - the $US Gold price has merely regained its levels of three weeks ago. The spot future high for 2005 so far is $US 446.10 reached on August 16."
August 26
"This week, as you can see on the daily bar chart, Gold hardly moved at all. It traded in the tightest weekly range for the whole year thus far, moving a princely total of $US 2.00 over the week."
August 19
"Now, for the first time since the 1970s, it is not the prices of financial "assets" which are rising, it is the prices of consumer and producer goods. The only things which is keeping at bay a direct comparison between today and the 1970s are the massaged government "inflation measures" (PPI and CPI) - and the $US Gold price."
August 12
"So, why did Gold all of a sudden explode upwards by $US 9.00 on Thursday, August 11? There are a myriad of contributing factors, but here's one that we are confident had something to do with it."
August 5
"What Gold has done so far since July 19 is to regain (almost all) its 2005 losses. At its close of $US 437.20 on August 5, down $Us 0.70 from the $US 437.90 it closed at on August 4, the spot future Gold price is now $US 1.20 below the $US 438.40 level at which it began 2005."
July 29
"Any alarm bells, muted as they are to date, are coming from the US Treasury debt markets. This week, the yield two-year paper jumped above the 4.0% level for the first time in just over four years. More disquieting still, the yield curve continues to flatten."
July 22
"If continued at the present pace China's reserves will increase by ONE-THIRD by the end of 2005 and top the $US 1 TRILLION mark by June 2006. They can't keep it up. It would seem that the Chinese government and the People's Bank of China have come to the same conclusion."
July 15
"In the first six months of 2005, China's foreign exchange reserves (overwhelmingly US Dollars, of course) increased by $US 100 Billion to $US 711 Billion. This increase is double the rate of the first half of 2004. If continued at the present pace China's reserves will increase by ONE-THIRD by the end of 2005 and top the $US 1 TRILLION mark by June 2006. They can't keep it up."
July 8
"The main focus of the G-8 was supposed to be the forgiveness of African debt. We will probably never know the precise details of what the REAL focus was, but it's a safe bet that there were other issues of more pressing a nature which were discussed behind tightly closed doors."
July 1
"As for the Dollar surge on July 1, as usual, only one part of the "equation" is being looked at. What is being looked at is the prospect of higher US yields in comparison with other nations. What is being studiously ignored is the the ability of American debtors to go on servicing ever higher debt loads at ever higher interest rates."
June 24
"To starkly illustrate just how "nervous" international investors are getting, there was a huge surge in both US and European government bonds on June 22 when it was revealed that of the seven individuals responsible for setting British interest rates voted in favour of LOWERING rates at the last Bank of England meeting. "
June 17
"On June 16, the spot future Gold price bolted $US 7.10 higher to close at $US 436.20. That move turned UP the $US 5 x 3 Gold chart, precisely one month after it had turned down."
June 10
"On June 10, the "something that gave" was the Euro Gold price. It climbed to a new all time high of Euros 352.30, exceeding a high which had been set more than three years ago in late May 2002"
June 3
"Two days later, on June 2, the Comex traders simply couldn't stand it any longer. Impressed by the resilience of Gold in the face of these two European "no" votes, the bid the spot future Gold price up $US 7.40 on the day."
May 27
"Something is going to give here, and in the not too distant future too. Take a look at the Gold $US 1 x 3 point and figure chart below. There it hangs, pointing straight down and just below the uprend line on the chart."
May 20
"The Dollar is rallying, what need is there for Gold? That is the attitude on the COMEX at present. It is most certainly not reflected out there in the real world where physical Gold is bought and sold, the demand continues to increase."
May 13
"But behind all this, and as yet off the radar screens of most individual investors, is the sudden and immense surge in the concern over the credit-worthiness of the debt paper which supports the financial system."
May 6
"In just over ten months (since June 30, 2004), official US rates as mandated by the Fed have TRIPLED - from 1.0% to 3.0%. We have not been able to find any prior instance in the history of the Fed during which its Funds rate tripled in less than a year."
April 29
"Gold didn't do much this week, small wonder considering the political imperatives now in play, but it did eke out a small gain in $US terms - in the face of a US Dollar that rose to post an 0.97 point gain on the $US index this week."
April 22
"Last weekend, the G-7-IMF-World Bank meetings came and went with barely a whimper. The fatuous proposal from Britain that the IMF "sell" its Gold holdings was ignored. China, which was an honoured guest at the previous G-7 meeting in February, didn't even bother to show up."
April 15
"This week, the strains finally broke out in action, at least on world stock markets. Ironically, it took place just as the IMF - World Bank - G7 - were about to meet in Washington in their latest attempt to assure the world that everything was under control."
April 8
"This week, the Australian Reserve Bank, which was almost universally expected to raise rates, stood pat. So did Europe's ECB, despite the clear and growing evidence of price inflation across the continent."
April 1
"To make sure that the "message" of lessening of "inflationary pressure" which was desired sticks, at least over the weekend, Gold fell as soon as trading ended in London and became the exclusive preserve of the US."
March 24
"The more obvious the price inflation in the US becomes (and it's becoming pretty obvious), the more desperate will be the efforts to support the US Dollar AND to hold down the price of alternatives to the US Dollar."
March 18
"Last week was the first week this year in which Gold regained or surpassed its levels at the beginning of the year in terms of ALL (thirteen) major currencies we watch. Combine this with the $11.00 plus rise in $US terms, the renewed weakness in the US Dollar itself, and the continuing boom in the CRB index, and it is clear to see that alarm bells were going off all over Washington and Wall Street."
March 11
"We say a "comparatively" good week because Gold did not confine its rise to $US, it was up in terms of all major currencies, even the Euro albeit marginally. Encouragingly, the closer Gold gets to its December highs, the steeper the "wall of worry" becomes."
March 4
"What did not return to "normal" was the $US oil price, which briefly traded above the $US 55 level this week, and the CRB index, which continued to rise throughout the week and closed on March 4 at 309.15, its highest level since January 1981"
February 25
"How much longer the $US Gold price can remain a "reciprocal" of the $US index is going to be interesting. Last week, the "core" PPI was announced - up 0.8% for January. On February 25, the CRB index closed above the 300 level for the first time since early 1981."
February 18
"In his Congressional testimony this week, Mr Greenspan was assailed with questions which at least nibbled around the edges of the "long-term" viability of present US borrowing and spending practices."
February 11
"Out of the blue, a rebound. Led by a HUGE leap of $US 0.63 (or 9.6%!) for Silver, $US Gold climbed from $US 412.90 to $US 421.00 on February 10-11."
February 4
"For almost a month, between January 7 and February 2, Gold traced out and maintained a support level just below $US 420. That level held for Mr Bush's inaugural address. It held for the Iraqi elections on January 30. It held for the FOMC meeting and the Fed rate rise of February 2. But two events combined to knock it below that support point."
January 28
"The fact is that Mr Bush's policies as outlined in his inaugural address ARE impossible to implement. What is being maintained, so far, is the illusion that they can be implemented. Next week, we have the Iraqi elections, the FOMC meeting, the State of the Union message, and the G-7 meeting."
January 21
"Still to come are the presentation of the new budget to Congress, the state of the union speech, the Iraqi election of January 30, the FOMC meeting of February 1-2, and the BIG one, the G7 Financial Ministers and Central Bankers meeting of February 4-5."
January 14
"And WHY does the US "need to maintain global supremacy?". Mr Bush et all would have us believe it is to protect us from terrorists. In fact, it is to protect the US Dollar in its role as the world's reserve currency."
January 7
"As we have said ever since the new uptrend was established, Gold could retreat all the way back to the $US 400 level without breaching the uptrend. While we still do NOT think this will happen, the money managers out there are demonstrably desperate and desperate men do desperate things."