This is our portal to past issues of our Gold Bull Market (and Gold bottom) commentary. In March 2002, the "Gold Bottom" Commentary became a "Gold BULL MARKET" Commentary. You will find links to the current commentary and the commentary for last week above.
December 29
"The Fed has stopped raising rates, but the rest of the world has not. The longer this continues, the more pressure will fall on the US Dollar, a fact studiously ignored on Wall Street, at the Fed, and at the White House."
December 22
"The European Central Bank did what everyone expected them to do and raised their controlling interest rates by 0.25 percent to 3.50 percent on December 7. The Fed did what everyone expected them to do and stood pat on US interest rates (at 5.25 percent) on December 12. That's it for Central Bank machinations for 2006."
December 15
"Last week, the US Secretary of the Treasury, Mr Paulson, was quoted as saying that he believed that a "strong" US Dollar was in the "national interest". This week, Mr Paulson and Mr Bernanke are in China to talk with their Chinese counterparts about the US Dollar (amongst other things)."
December 8
"This week, Gold is down in terms of US Dollars but flat or down to a lesser extent in terms of those same other major currencies. The reason, of course, is a "recovery" by the US Dollar, especially on Friday, December 8"
December 1
"Gold is up in terms of US Dollars this week - see the weekly chart on this page - but flat or down in terms of almost all other major currencies. The reason for this is, of course, the continuing slide of the US Dollar itself."
November 24
"On the daily chart, the notable change this week is the shorter-term (10-day) moving average (MA) is curving up towards it 20-day counterpart. With Gold trading just below the $US 640 level, it will cross back above it next week."
November 17
"This week, Gold traded below the $US 620 level (which would have turned this chart down again) on three of the five trading days of the week, but never closed below $US 620. That is the level which would turn the chart down. We'll see if we get another such "gyration" on the chart next week."
November 10
"Now that Gold is back well above $US 600, the likelihood increases that we are in for another repeat of that November/January run up this time. The difference is that Gold is still a long way (over $US 90) below the bull market highs it set back in May this year."
November 3
"The possible "major bottom in Gold" which we reported here a month ago and confirmed three weeks ago has definitely taken place as confirmed on all charts."
October 27
"Things are getting more dangerous for the "Gold managers". They are getting a bit too "predictable". As you know, this was the week of the last FOMC meeting before the US mid term elections. As if it was scripted, on the Monday, October 23, the spot future Gold price dropped $US 13.30."
October 20
"That means that we may have a major bottom in Gold. We say "may" because the political nature of markets are even higher than they usually are at present with everything in the US now geared up for the crucual mid-term elections on November 7. Technically, it is safe to say that the low $US 560s in Gold, a level reached five months apart in June and October, represents a SOLID support area."
October 13
"That means that we may have a major bottom in Gold. We say "may" because the political nature of markets are even higher than they usually are at present with everything in the US now geared up for the crucual mid-term elections on November 7. Technically, it is safe to say that the low $US 560s in Gold, a level reached five months apart in June and October, represents a SOLID support area."
October 6
"That was last week. This week turned out to be the first week of the mid-term election campaign as the US Congress went into recess a week early on September 30. Gold (and many other "commodities", notably oil) got blitzed while US stock markets - as measured by the Dow anyway - finally managed to top the highs they set nearly seven years ago in January 2000"
September 29
"The big news in investment markets has nothing to do with precious metals, of course. It is instead the Dow getting ever closer to the highs it set way back in January 2000. It seems that the worse the news of a fast slowing US economy gets, the higher US stock markets go."
September 22
"With six weeks still remaining before the US mid term elections, it is much to early to say that the $US Gold price has found a "bottom" in this correction. At a bare minimum, the Gold price is going to have to get back above the $US 600 level and preferably below the $US 610 level"
September 15
"Gold began this week by dropping $US 19.80 to free fall right through the $US 600 level, closing on September 11 at 591.60. By the end of the week, the spot future price was down to $US 577.50."
September 8
"What is summarily ignored in regard to the precious metals is their potential role as money or at least as a means of protection against the paper which is used as money. As it did in the 1970s, a recession imposed on an economy which uses a debt based currency as its means of payment will inevitably put pressure on that currency."
September 1
"It is easy to see the support on this chart - at the $US 615 level. Any breach of this support - a close below the $US 610 level, would signal at best a test of $US 600."
August 25
"This weekend, the world's Central Bankers have gathered for their annual gab fest in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Meanwile, inside the US, as the evidence that the housing bubble has burst becomes impossible to contradict, the hope grows that the Fed's "pause" at the last FOMC meeting is going to prove permanent."
August 18
"The most interesting thing about the "action" in the precious metals markets this week was that while the Gold "price" fell by $US 21.40 or 3.38%, the silver price actually rose - by $US 0.15 or 1.26%. This is VERY unusual."
August 11
"The synopsis of the week is that almost every major market went in the opposite direction of the one it could have been expected to go, given the Fed's decision to leave US rates alone taken on August 8."
August 4
"But the recovery is in fits and starts. This week, the spot future closing price managed to exceed the $US 650 level on August 2 only to fall back to close the week at $US 644."
July 28
"After an intraday low of $US 602 on US futures markets on Monday, July 24 ($US 66 below where the price closed on July 14) Gold has mounted a comeback to close the week at $US 634.80. The impetus, ironically enough, has come from a growing "conviction" based on a fervent hope that the Fed may have finished with their two year plus regime of raising US interest rates."
July 21
" Yes, the manipulation is blatant, but so is almost everything else which is being done by those clinging to power. It's a dirty business, and it is always the innocents who suffer most."
July 14
" This week, the last major holdout, the Japanese, joined the party. For the first time in six year, Japan has an official interest rate as the Bank of Japan "raised" their official rate from 0.00% to 0.25% on July 14. The "extent" of the rate rise is not relevant. What IS relevant is that the global drive towards higher interest rates is now truly global."
July 7
" In the five trading days since June 28, the spot future Gold price in the US has gained $US 56.50 or almost 9.8%. That's quite a snap back, understandable given the magnitude and quickness of Gold's fall since its 2006 highs set back in mid May."
June 30
" More serious still for the Fed is what is going on OUTSIDE the US. On Monday, June 26, the 'Central Bankers' Central Bank' the BIS (Bank for International Settlements) warned in its annual report that Central Bankers will have to move faster to raise interest rates because global inflationary pressures are rising and the economy remains vulnerable."
June 23
" The initial reaction has been knee jerk. Since the Fed is going to go on raising rates, the Dollar will strengthen because of the higher yields payable on Dollar denominated assets. This knee jerk reaction, as it always does, totally blanked out any effect which higher rates might have on the US economy."
June 16
"How long this phase lasts is impossible to predict, but the BIG dump in Gold and Silver prices would indicate that the correction will not be made up as quickly as have corrections over the past year or so. Having said that, a stampede out of paper currency denominated instruments into the paper currency itself brings us one step closer to a stampede out of paper currencies."
June 9
"This week has been the week in which the world was given a thunderous wake up call. All of a sudden, not much more than a month since Wall Street and most of the rest of the world was complacently predicting that the Fed was "finished" raising rates, the whole world seems to be rushing to raise rates."
June 2
"The current correction is now three weeks old. Given the depth of the current correction, and the fact that it has not yet found a SOLID support point, we cannot see it being resolved as quickly as its three predecessors."
May 26
"Why a "reverse" barometer? Because a sharp downturn in the price of Gold is not an indicator of increasing "pressure" on Gold, it is an indicator of increasing pressure on the fiat paper money financial system."
May 19
"This correction in Gold came, as it has done for years now, as concern about the future jumped substantially in the paper markets. There has been an abrupt turnaround in interest rate expectations in the US, from a rising hope for a pause in rate rises to the rising fear that the markets are not going to get one anytime soon."
May 12
"We don't know where the next downturn on this chart will take place. It may well take place from $US 720 since Gold has now reached the last but one of the resistance points on the way to its all time $US 850 high. We'll see. But whatever happens, the bull market is - to put it mildly - perfectly intact.."
May 5
Gold Bull Market Study not updated
April 28
"At its present level of $US 650 reached on April 28, the $US 5 x 3 chart has gone up a HUGE $US 105 in a straight line without any corrections whatsoever. This type of activity has only ever been seen on this chart once before, it the run up to the $US 850 all time high in late 1979 - early 1980."
April 21
"Only once since Gold's peak year of 1980 have the markets seen prices as volatile on the upside as they are now. That was a brief period in the second half of 1982 when Gold was rebounding from the bear market which followed the $US 850 high it set in January 1980."
April 14
"The spot future Gold close in New York has stayed within $US 5.00 of the $US 600 level on every trading day this week. ...Here we are at the $US 600 level, less than four months after Gold reached the $US 500 level last December."
April 7
"So here we are, having our first run at $US 600 Gold. As you will know by now, the spot future Gold price bolted up to a new bull market high on April 6, rising $US 7.30 on the day to close at $US 595.20. The spot future price has traded above $US 590 every day this week ..."
March 31
"Thus, Gold sustained its $US 540 - 570 trading range for just under two months. This week, it was decicsively broken through to the upside, thereby signalling the next leg on the bull market."
March 24
"Well, the "unfrozen" Treasury debt totals soared $US 93 Billion in three days once Mr Bush signed into law the new debt limit last weekend. And the Fed is no longer reporting M-3. But what woke Gold up was the biggest monthly drop in new house starts in nine years which was reported on March 24."
March 17
"Last week, Gold did an almost perfect repeat performance of its performance in early February. And this week, Gold has rebounded to end the week at $US 555.10 - right at the midpoint of what has now proved to be a $US 30 trading range between $US 540 and $US 570. Next week, the US Treasury can borrow again with the passage on March 16 of a new debt ceiling just below the $Us 9 TRILLION level."
March 10
"This week, Gold has done an almost perfect repeat performance of its performance a month ago. It has swan dived from $US 570 to just above the $US 540 level - on a spot future closing basis. On an intraday basis, spot future Gold got as low as $US 534.50 on March 10.
March 3
"Thus, in just over two weeks, Gold has gone from a support point just below the $US 540 level to almost, but not quite yet, regain its early February bull market highs. Silver (the poor man's Gold) is at new bull market highs this week, having broken above the $US 10 level for the first time in twenty-two years.
February 24
"The spot fuure Gold close peaked in December 2004 in the mid $US 450s and took NINE MONTHS - until mid September 2005 - to exceed those highs. The spot future Gold close peaked in December 2005 at $US 528.40. In January 2006, it smashed that 2005 high to ribbons.."
February 17
"Gold, however, has found the beginnings of solid support with its two closes just below $US 540. That doesn't mean the "correction" is over, of course. It is, however, a first indication that it isn't going to go much lower. We'll see."
February 10
"It wasn't so much a question of "opportunity" this week, more a question of naked necessity. The $US 19 break on the Gold price on February 7 shows the capacity is still there, as is the willingess of the major financial "institutions" to go along."
February 3
"In the month of January, the spot future closing price for $US Gold increased by precisely 10 percent. This is more than half of its ANNUAL increase in 2005. Thus far in the year, Gold is going up faster than the Nasdaq did in the banner last year of the great US stock bull market - 1999. Nobody was looking for a correction in the Nasdaq in 1999."
January 27
"The whole point is that a correction is precisely that. It is a situation in which a price goes against the trend. In a bull market, that is a falling price. But a correction - if it IS a correction - is a temporary phenomenon. How does one know that a bull market has been through a correction?"
January 20
"As you can see on the chart, while all these gyrations were going on, the actual weekly move on the spot future Gold price was a mere $US 3.00. That's just about the quietest week we have had since the latest acceleration of the Gold bull market got started (from the low $US 460s) in early November last year.
January 13
"Two weeks into 2006 and Gold is up nearly $US 40.00. It is up so fast and so strong that the majority of Gold followers are looking for a correction while forgetting that there was a BIG correction (from $US 540 to about $US 490 intraday) less than a month ago in the leadup to Christmas."
January 6
"Now, in the first week of 2006, IT HAS BROKEN ABOVE THAT TRADING RANGE. This week, Gold went up more than $US 13 on TWO trading days (out of four). It has smashed above its mide December 2005 bull market highs. It has consolidated ABOVE the $US 500 level."