This is our portal to past issues of our Gold Bull Market (and Gold bottom) commentary. In March 2002, the "Gold Bottom" Commentary became a "Gold BULL MARKET" Commentary. You will find links to the current commentary and the commentary for last week above.
December 31 - Year End
"Spot future Gold ended 2007 at $US 838.00. That's a rise of exactly $US 200 on the year, a gain of
31.35 percent. And that is the biggest gain in percentage terms since Gold rose by well over 100 percent in 1979."
December 21
"Gold? Well. while gold stocks all over the world sold off big time along with all the rest as stock markets have faltered, Gold itself more or less plastered itself at or about the $US 800 level. That is, it did so until Friday (December 11) when the price once again shot up."
December 14
"This week saw the biggest announcement yet as the Fed let it be known that it was teaming with the other major Western Central Banks to invent a whole new way of attempting to "reliquify" the system. That was the day after the FOMC met and lowered official US rates another 0.25 percent - as much as they dared."
December 7
"We are in for a no holds barred fight to the finish for the rest of this year to keep the global credit system functioning and even more important, to try to make sure that the waning confidence in that system is not eroded even further. It's a tall order, but they might pull it off - THIS YEAR. Next year? No chance whatsoever."
November 30
"When all the remaining "rules" designed to maintain a patina of "fiscal probity" are being thrown to the four winds, it is any wonder that Gold, Silver, Oil, Commodities, Stock Markets et all are gyrating madly?"
November 23
"Last week we got the downturn on the $US 5 x 3 chart. This week we got the upturn. On the $US 5 x 3 chart, the high so far in the bull market is $US 835. To put the chart 3 clear "X"s above that and signal the likelihood of an upwards acceleration on the chart now requires a spot future Gold close of $US 850 - or higher."
November 16
"Gold has traded above the $US 800 level for a full week (six straight days actually) for the first time ever. The spot future (December) contract hit an intraday high of $US 847.50 on November 8. That's just under $US 30 below the all time intraday high of $US 878 it hit on January 21, 1980."
November 9
"Gold has traded above the $US 800 level for a full week (six straight days actually) for the first time ever. The spot future (December) contract hit an intraday high of $US 847.50 on November 8. That's just under $US 30 below the all time intraday high of $US 878 it hit on January 21, 1980."
November 2
"Spot future Gold closed above the $US 800 level four times in late January 1980. It has never done so again - until Friday, November 2, 2007 when the spot future Gold price rose $US 14.80 to close at a new bull market high of $US 808.50"
October 26
"Gold is, of course, at a bull market high in US Dollar terms. It has now only one resistance point left in the entire history of it US Dollar "price" since that was capped at $US 35 per ounce. That price is, of course, the $US 850 close ($US 878 intraday high) of January 21, 1980"
October 19
"When one sees Gold (in US Dollar terms anyway) hitting new bull market highs and the US Dollar falling below the all time lows it set just three weeks ago on the $US index (USDX) in the week leading up to a G-7 Central Bankers and Finance Ministers meeting, one may be sure that things are worse than they are being made to appear."
October 12
"As you know, Gold bounced back this week to reach yet another bull market high on October 11 when the spot future close climbed above the $US 750 level for the first time in this bull market. In fact, in its entire post August 15, 1971 history, Gold has only closed higher on a spot future basis seven times."
October 5
"A reaction was inevitable. It duly came this week, on October 2, when the spot future Gold price fell $US 17.40, its first fall of any magnitude since that $US 20 August 16 fall which formed the base for the present surge."
September 28
"This week, Gold has tacked on another $US 10.70 on the upside, almost all of that rising coming on September 28. On the same day, the USDX ($US Index) fell 0.62 points to break below the 78 level on the index (spot future closing level) for the first time EVER."
September 21
"You are well aware, of course, that the spot future $US Gold price close has broken through to a new bull market high this week. It happened, not so coincidentally, on September 19, the day after the US Fed met and decided to lower their Fed Funds rate by 0.50 percent (and their Discount rate by a like amount)."
September 14
"As you know, the big rises on the Gold price stopped mid-week this week as a concerted effort was made to reassure the global public (and commercial bankers everywhere) that the prospects for a "thaw" in the global interbank lending freeze were improving."
September 7
"The present acceleration in the upmove by the $US Gold price began on August 31 when both President Bush and Fed Chairman Bernanke gave speeches attempting to "reassure" global markets and the American people that they had the situation "under control" and that the credit freeze in the financial markets would not impact the so-called "real" economy."
August 31
"Mr Bernanke's remarks, in particular, were almost universally interpreted by all mainstream market pundits as an iron-clad guarantee that the Fed would start lowering "real" (read the Fed Funds rate) US rates on or before the next FOMC meeting on September 18"
August 24
"Once that happens, those who keep flying to government debt paper for "safety" will find out just how "safe" it really is. At that point, the pressure under the Gold price is going to be VERY hard to resist. But there is no doubt that Mr Bernanke and his fellow Central Bankers will try."
August 17
"On Thursday, August 16, the chaos in stock markets, in the global interbank payment system, and with the relative exchange rates of currencies, reached a peak. What had been a swiftly rising tide of capital flight became a tsunami."
August 10
"The stampede is still into government bonds, and on August 9, the rush for liquidity was so intense that precious metals were sold off too. But just as happened last week, they rebounded immediately."
August 3
"Gold prices recovered quite well this week, ominous (for the paper asset crowd) since the fearful suspicion that the days of "easy money" might be over is swiftly turning into a horrified fear that this is actually the case."
July 27
"Last week, over the three days between July 18 and July 20, spot future Gold rose $US 18.80. Last week, US and world stock markets were still going up. This week, over the three days between July 25 and July 27, spot future Gold fell $US 24.70. This week, US and world stock markets had their worst week in five years."
July 20
"Ominously, for those who are desperate to keep the $US Gold price under control - especially with the unflattering contrast of a steadily weakening US Dollar - the open interest on the US Gold futures markets has actually been declining as the Gold price rises."
July 13
"First, the USDX has this week plunged to new lows in its post January 2002 bear market and is getting perilously close to the ultimate "demarcation" line of 80.00 on the index. It closed on January 13 at 80.39."
July 6
"Unlike last week, however, Gold did manage a gain this week. Having now passed through the seasonally "weak" period of May/June, Gold is entering what is usually a seasonally very good period between now and early/mid September."
June 29
"Marvellous, isn't it? The FOMC meeting this week was a "two-dayer" over June 27-28. June 26, the day before the meeting, the spot future Gold price duly lost $US 9.20 to close at its lowest level since January 22 and all but come back to its level at the start of the year.""
June 22
"We think that an upturn, if Gold is going to conform to its seasonal norm, will probably be delayed until after next week for the simple reason that the Fed's FOMC meets next week (on June 28-29) to decide on US interest rates.""
June 15
"This month alone, the Central Banks of Europe, Canada, New Zealand, Switzerland and more have raised their rates. The Central Bank which stands as the exception is, of course, the Fed, which has held official US rates frozen at 5.25 percent for almost a year now.""
June 8
"Last week the ECB announced it had no plans to sell more Gold until September. That was not expected. This week the ECB announced an 0.25 percent rate rise to 4.00 percent, the highest level in six years. That WAS expected, and had been for months.""
June 1
"In FACT, Gold's biggest bull runs ALWAYS come at times of rising market rates. The reason for this is very simple. A market rate rise, especially rising rates for government debt paper, is always an indicator of declining confidence in the currency in which the debt paper is denominated.""
May 25
"Apart from the ever more outrageous distortions of US government economic stastics as a means of faking the true state of the US economy, the constant feature in Gold's latest pullback is ever rising volumes on the US Gold paper markets.""
May 18
"This week the roof fell in again, mainly on May 16 when the spot future price dropped $US 13.00. The catalyst this time was a rebounding US Dollar on the back of a report from the US Commerce Department that US housing starts increased 2.5 percent in April. What was not noticed (on purpose?) was that at the same time, building permits fell 8.9 percent to their lowest level in a decade.""
May 11
"This week, Gold came within $US 1.60 of its 2007 highs (set three weeks ago), and then the roof fell in. On May 9 and 10, as the Fed decided not to raise US rates and the Bank of England the next day decided they WOULD raise British rates, Gold fell by $US 20.40.""
May 4
"At any rate, with the US Dollar having recovered ever so slightly this week, Gold is once again approaching the $US 700 level, a level it has only breached so far in its bull market on four trading days - May 9 through 12 - last year.""
April 27
"Indeed, the surreal quality of almost all world markets at present is getting totally out of hand. In the US the Dow cracked above the 13000 level for the first time ever this week. Not even the announcement by the US Commerce Department that US economic "growth" for the first quarter of 2007 was 1.3 percent affected Wall Street.""
April 20
"Last week, Gold hit the $US 685 level. This week, it has breached the $US 690 level closing at a new 2007 high of $US 692.00 on April 20. It has been slow progress so far, especially considering the weakening US Dollar.""
April 13
"The only ingredient yet to enter the mix is growing concern amongst Americans themselves about the future of the US Dollar. The first signal that this might be changing was given in a Bloomberg article reporting on the $US 10 gold jump on April 13. Bloomberg said that this reflected a "demand for a dollar alternative.""
April 6
"We talked about an "eerie calm" on the markets last week. This has largely spilled over into the week just ended as the world still waits to see whether the Bush Administration will attack Iran."
March 30
"This week, global markets have gone into a state of near "limbo". The reason is simple. As predictions of a US attack on Iran proliferate from all over the world, the world can do nothing but watch and wait. Precious metals have gone quiet, stock markets have gone quiet, bond markets have gone quiet, currency markets have gone quiet."
March 23
"Unusually for a week in which the FOMC meets, Gold (and Silver) did not fall in the lead up to the March 20-21 meeting this week nor did they fall in its immediate aftermath. They waited till the end of the week, Gold losing $US 6.90 and Silver $US 0.25 on Friday, March 23"
March 16
"Once again, world stock markets have had a bad week this week after the false calm of the previous week. Once again Gold was sold off, but to a far lesser extent than it was two weeks ago when the markets fell precipitously off their highs."
March 9
"The sell off last week was nothing more or less than a bursting of global investors' complacency. This week, we have heard the usual litany from US financial "officials", notably Treasury Secretary Paulson, to the effect that the "economy" is in fine shape."
March 2
"The sell off this week was nothing more or less than a bursting of global investors' complacency. When that happens, there is an immediate rush to get "liquid". Problem is that such "liquidity" (cash) doesn't provide a "return" so there is an immediate rush into something that does, and that is always government bonds."
February 23
"As you probably also know, the "speculators" on the Comex are overwhelmingly on the long side of Gold but the "commercials" (aka the "funds) are almost as overwhelmingly short and have been so throughout the Gold bull."
February 16
"On February 13 through 15, the US Dollar Index (USDX) fell more than one point, from 85.00 to 83.91. Over the same period, the Dow made daily new highs and, even more startling, US Treasury yields fell dramatically."
February 9
"The reason for Gold's sudden surge - up $US 15.20 over the last two days of the week - is simple. All of a sudden, a great wave of "concern" has erupted in US banking and financial circles about the huge surge in mortgage defaults and foreclosures in the US."
February 2
"The first sign of genuine renewed strength on this chart would come if Gold broke that sequence. We had the first sign of it doing that as Gold topped the $US 645 level last week. This week, Gold reached the definitive "breakout" level of $US 660 in intraday trading on February 1, but did not CLOSE at or above that level."
January 26
"Two weeks ago, Gold jumped back above both MAs yet again and has or course remained above them ever since. With the shorter-term MA still comfortably above the longer-term one, the "buy signal" on Gold has not been erased by the gyrations since Christmas."
January 19
"But for 'public consumption', the Fed is trying to get the message out to the American public and Wall Street that they won't be lowering official US rates anytime soon. Since 1990, the longest the Fed has stood pat before reversing direction at the top of a series of rate rises has been seven months"
January 12
"But what really helped the Gold price was the unexpected move by the Bank of England (BoE) on January 11 to raise their controlling interest rates by 0.25%. This was the third 0.25% rate rise by the BoE since last August and brings UK and US controlling rates to par at 5.25%. The interpretation - "inflation pressures" still exist."
January 5
"How deliciously ironic. This was the week when the shorter-term (10 day) moving average crossed back above its longer-term (20 day) counterpart on the daily chart. This is, of course, a "buy" signal as a rule. But this week, the spot future Gold price has plummeted back below both moving averages."