This is our portal to past issues of our Gold Bull Market (and Gold bottom) commentary. In March 2002, the "Gold Bottom" Commentary became a "Gold BULL MARKET" Commentary. You will find links to the current commentary and the commentary for last week above.
September 11
"Gold broke above that resistance by reaching $US 965 on the chart on August 4. Now, a month later, we have had the surge which breaks the chart out of the tight range it has been in for most of the northern summer. Gold is once again (just) above $US 1000 on this chart, one "X" higher than its March 2008 and February 2009 highs."
September 4
"Gold broke above that resistance by reaching $US 965 on the chart on August 4. Now, a month later, we have had the surge which breaks the chart out of the tight range it has been in for most of the northern summer. We are once again on the verge of a "four figure" $US Gold price."
August 28
"Up until the HUGE Treasury auctions early in June, the USDX had one of fastest falls on record in percentage terms. That fall stablised until a month ago. On July 15, the USDX dipped back below the 80.00 level. It has remained below 80.00 ever since."
August 21
"This was the week of the Chinese stock market - and Ben Bernanke. Early in the week, almost every market took a hit as the Chinese stock market completed an almost 20 percent retracement from the highs it hit on August 4."
August 14
"The only thing that Americans are certain about is that it is one more government program bailout bill which is going to cost them a lot of money. The number being bandied about by Mr Obama is "$800 - $900 Billion over ten years". Uh huh."
August 7
"In Chicago, futures traders increased their bets on the chances of the Fed starting to actually increase official US rates by the first FOMC meeting of 2010. Unspoken but firmly implied was the assumption that the Fed would not do this unless they were confident that the "green shoots" were on the verge of turning into a luxurient field of financial fecundity."
July 31
"Last Friday, spot future Gold closed the week above the $US 950 level for the first time since the week ending on June 5. This Friday, it closed above the $US 950 level again, but not before some very heavy trading days and a fall down below the $US 930 level mid week as the US and China got together for their "summit" in Washington DC."
July 24
"The fall of the US Dollar is still being been welcomed in US financial circles. That will last as long as US stock markets keep going up and as long as Treasury bond yields, especially at the long end, remain under control. As always, econoomic pundits viewing market actions like this see only what they want to see."
July 17
"As it was last week, the fall of the US Dollar has actually been welcomed in US financial circles this week. The Dollar "weakness", it is said, is a sign that investors all over the world are getting over the paralysis caused by the credit crisis and are now seeking out "riskier assets" to invest in."
July 10
"On July 8, the $US price of Gold suddenly plunged $US 19.80 to $US 909.30. That's a two month low for the metal and took place as the G-8 meeting in Italy convened. The next day, on July 9, the trade-weighted US Dollar Index (USDX) plunged almost a full point to close at 80.05, only just hanging on to the vital 80 level."
June 26
"The looming problem throughout the world is that the approach of governments and their citizens to the financial crisis continues to be at opposite poles. Governments are borrowing and spending frantically. Individuals are paying off debt and accumulating (paper) savings almost as fast."
June 19
"But this proposed bout of re-regulation, assuming it emerges from Congress unscathed (unlikely) is more sweeping than even the first Roosevelt Administration (1932-26) dared to contemplate. Mr Obama has plans to follow up his predecessor's "Department of Homeland Security" with a "Department of Financial Security"."
June 12
"Last week, it was a much better than "expected" US jobs figure which rescued the US Dollar and sent Gold (and Silver) downstairs. This week it has been the assurances of imminent fiscal "rectitude" - along with a bigger than expected foreign central bank participation in the Treasury auctions - which has done the trick."
June 5
"So, this week at least, Gold has definitely faltered in its rise back towards the $US 1000 level. No matter what the evidence in the real world (see the inexorable rise of Treasury yields), the official numbers continue to be miraculously "benign" and the "green shoots of recovery" continue to hover like a mirage in the desert in front of the financial world."
May 29
"It took Gold eleven months after it first hit the $US 1000 level in March 2008 to regain that milestone. Now, we are approaching $US 1000 again - just over three months after it was hit for the second time in February 2009."
May 22
"This week has been another very good one for Gold - as long as you measure it in terms of the US Dollar. To put this in stark perspective, lets take a look at some hard data since Gold climbed back above the $US 900.00 level on May 1. Since then:"
May 8
"Gold had a very good week this week. Not surprising when one considers two aspects of global markets which did NOT figure in the mainstream news coverage this week. Longer-term Treasury bond yields rocketed this week. And the trade-weighted US Dollar index (USDX) plummeted on May 8."
May 1
"For the first time in a long time, the big worldwide preoccuptation this week has not been on the state of the world economy. This week, a 'flu bug' has taken the global front and centre of the stage."
April 24
"As you can see on the chart, Gold rose almost $US 50.00 this week as stock markets faltered and Treasury yields rose. This week too, another nation completed the process of lowering official rates out of sight as the Canadian central bank cut to 0.25 percent."
April 17
"The great media cry now is that 'risk appetite' has reappeared. This is said to be the catalyst which has seen another (very small) rise in the US Dollar this week and which has seen the spot future Gold price 'fail' at the $US 900 level and close the week below $US 870 at its lowest levels since late January."
April 9
"And this week too, after the market was safely closed for the Easter break, the Treasury released its budget figures for March. The deficit for the MONTH was $US 192. 3 Billion. Spending over the month of March was $US 321.2 Billion while revenue was $US 129 Billion. That means that in March, almost 60 percent of government spending was with BORROWED MONEY."
April 3
"Still, it is not every day one sees the spot future Gold price in New York fall $US 18.70 while the USDX falls by 1.07 points (or 1.25 percent). That happened on April 2. And on April 3, US March unemployment was announced. It hit a 25-year high of 8.5 percent officially."
March 27
"Last week, on March 18, the US Fed announced plans to buy longer-term US Treasury debt paper with Federal Reserve Notes (aka US Dollars) duly created out of thin air. This week, they began that process as the US Treasury put on the market $US 98 Billion worth of debt paper, an amount unprecedented in its history."
March 20
"But THIS week has given us a momentous example of how perilous those same US government officials think the situation is in reality. This week, on March 18, the US Fed announced plans to buy longer-term US Treasury debt paper with Federal Reserve Notes (aka US Dollars) duly created out of thin air."
March 13
"This was also the week when Gold completed the process of defining a potential trading range between $US 900 and $US 1000. Early in the week, Gold plummeted from $US 940 to $US 895. It then turned right there and retraced its path back to the $US 930 level. Meanwhile, the US Dollar, which had hit a four year high on its trade-weighted index last week, had a relapse."
March 6
"Week on week, Gold did nothing in the first week of March. It spot future close of $US 942.70 on March 6 was exactly 20 cents above the level it closed at a week ago. But of course that leaves out the "sojourn" down to the $US 906 level in the middle of the week, not to mention the $US trade weighted index (USDX) zooming all the way up to 89.20 - its highest level in more than four years - on March 5."
February 27
"Clearly, this makes the $US 1000 level for Gold the most vital of them all and the one which will be most fiercely defended by the monetary, financial and political powers that be both inside and outside the US. A breakdown in any of the three other critical levels are dangerous to the current global financial system. A runaway Gold price would be potentially fatal."
February 20
"On February 20, three days after President Obama signed his "stimulus" package into law, and on the same day as the Dow decisively took out its previous bear market lows by falling 100 point;s to close at 7365, the spot future $US Gold price stormed upward by $US 25.70 to close above the $US 1000 level for only the third time in history."
February 13
"Now that was a wild week for Gold. Interesting how few people seemed to notice it. After a fall of $US 21.50 on February 9, the day Treasury Secretary Geithner was originally scheduled to speak on his version of the bank bailout, Gold turned right around and bolted upward by neary $US 60.00 over the next three days."
February 6
"Mr Obama's 'honeymoon' is now getting rather frayed at the edges. Not only is he having trouble with the Congress, even though it is Democratically controlled. His increasingly "shrill" diatribes against 'politicians' is not resonating well on 'Main Street'."
January 30
"So far, the only two US "investment items" which are holding up are, perversely enough, the US Dollar itself and the precious metals (Gold and Silver). Over the month of January, the USDX (US Dollar Index) posted a gain of 5.25 percent while Gold and Silver in US Dollar terms were up 4.86 percent and 11.25 percent respectively."
January 23
"The 'Dreamtime', as we say in Australia, is over. Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th President of the United States this week on January 20 and now has had the whole scary mess dumped in his lap. The markets await his response."
January 16
"As the global banking crisis bit once more this week, Gold turned down again. By January 16, it was threatening the $US 800 level in intraday trading in New York, down more than $US 80 from the level at which it started the year."
January 9
"Of course, the world is now counting down to the inauguration of Mr Obama on January 20 and, with that, the next big effort of the US government to buy its way out of the financial strait jacket in which it is enmeshed."