The nadir of the Gold correction (so far?) came on Monday, April 7 when spot future Gold in New York lost $US 3.80 to close at $US 321.50. Since then, with the war being seen as having been won, although no declaration of "victory" has yet been made by the US, Gold has been gradually climbing. For the week, the spot future price managed a rise of $US 2.60
Gold was pushed below its 200-day moving average on March 21 when it fell $US 6.90 t0 $US 326.10. It happened again as Gold slumped $US 9.40 on April 2-3 to $US 324.90. Gold remains below that 200-day moving average, a technical indicator singled out weeks ago as THE support point.
Here are the relative performances of $US Gold, the $US Index, and the Dow since Gold broke above $US 300 to stay on March 27, 2002:
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On the daily bar chart, you can see the gradual improvement of Gold this week. You can also see that the shorter term (10 day) MA is getting closer to the longer term (20 day) MA. One indication that a "bottom" to the correction has been established will be when the shorter term MA crosses back above the longer term one, a situation not seen on this chart since February 13. The weekly bar chart shows Gold is now just below its 40 week (200 day) moving average.
On the point and figure chart, Gold has turned up from the $US 321.50 low set on April 7. We do not yet, however, have a genuine support formation on the chart. The senior uptrend line, anchored back at the April 2001 Gold bottom, is presently at about $US 318 with a tentative support point being the April 7 low.
Here's another perspective - a comparison between Gold's 2002 low and its present price and the $US index 2002 high and its present "price". All data is on CLOSING levels:
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You will find charts of the $US index and Gold here for comparison.
In the just over two months between late November 2002 and early February 2003, Gold rose from $US 316 to $US 379. In the just over two months since early February 2003, Gold has corrected all the way down to $US 321.50 and now stands at $US 327.90. The long term uptrend remains intact. We now await confirmation of a support level.