"... the big one would be any spot future close over $US 275. Take a look at the long-term $US 5 x 3 P&F Gold chart. That chart has not moved since February 10, 2001. A close of $US 275 or higher would turn it up, and be the best and probably final piece of evidence necessary to conclude that Gold has indeed bottomed".
(Gold Bottom Commentary - May 11, 2001)
Before you click on that link, and the others above, take a glance at the charts to your left. Patience is indeed a virtue, and often has rewards commensurate with its exercise. What you see on the charts to your left, and in the other charts which are linked to this page, is a shining example of that fact.
Yes, it's true, spot future Comex Gold was up $US 13.80 to $US 287.80 on Friday, May 18. This is the highest spot future close for Gold since June 30, 2000 - that's a LONG time ago. After a steady six-week build-up, the Gold price has finally broken out in $US terms.
We go into the reasons for this breakout on our other GTW commentary pages. This is the technical page. And on a technical basis, looking at ALL these charts, there is now NO DOUBT that Gold has bottomed. Look at the "double bottom" on the weekly bar chart and the Point and Figure chart. THAT, along with the $US 253 low in August 1999, IS IT.
OK, so Gold has "bottomed". Now what? Well, please open the Weekly bar chart back to 1996. Look at the Gold "spikes" in late 1999 and early 2000. Compare them to what is now happening. Look in particular at the action preceding the first spike, the "Washington Agreement" spike of September 1999.
See the double bottom on the chart just before the spurt. That was the BEGINNING of the bottom formation. Now, look at the action leading up to the spurt on Friday, May 18. Yep, that's another double bottom, but one with a HUGE difference. This one came at the END of the bottom formation - at almost exactly the same level as the first one.
Gold began its bear market in February 1996. It kept hitting lower lows until August 1999. Then it went through six months of volatility, until just after its second spike in February 2000. For a little over a year, Gold was gradually subsiding back towards its 1999 lows. It reached them at the beginning of April, and then began slowly climbing again. And NOW, it has broken loose.
What you are looking at on the weekly bar chart is the END of an absolutely textbook bottom formation. Now, it remains only for Gold to establish an UPTREND. The first step is a close ABOVE $US 300. One more day like May 18 would give us that.
To see how we have documented this process, take a look at our Commentary for last week and go on to read our Archives. If we do say so ourselves, we've done a pretty good job. Stay tuned! It's going to get MUCH more interesting from here.