When the New York NYMEX market (where Gold futures are traded) opened briefly on September 14, the spot future contract spiked immediately to $US 300, the NYMEX announced an early closure for"technical reasons", and spot future Gold fell back to close on the day at $US 291.10. "Technical" problems have beset paper Gold trading ever since. The latest from the NYMEX is that trading will not return to normal hours until Monday, November 5. That's four weeks from now.
To this point, the huge Gold surge of September 14 has stopped almost dead in its tracks. Over the week of Sept 24-28, spot future Gold rose $US 0.50. This past week, Oct 1-5, spot future Gold fell $US 1.00. On September 14, spot future Gold closed at $US 291.10. On October 5, it closed at $US 291.40. The entire trading range (on a closing basis) over that three week period has been $US 4.70 ($US 288.60 - $US 293.30)
Consider the FRANTIC activity in all areas of the financial system, not least the Fed's open market activities and rate lowerings, over this same three weeks. Consider the huge dive, and then rebound, in world stock markets (again led in both directions by the U.S.) over the same period. Consider the Oil price, which fell nearly 20% IN ONE DAY. Consider the announced plans by the U.S. government to FLOOD the U.S. economy with newly created money.
You would never know that ANY of this had happened if you confined your attention to the spot future $US Gold price, would you?
Sure, the Gold price is being "manipulated". What price isn't? The only difference is that the $US Gold price is not moving while the "price" of almost everything else is gyrating madly. Technically, as the charts on this page show, Gold is still perfectly poised. As you can see on the longer-term weekly bar chart, the latest upmove, unlike all its predecessors back to 1999, is not a "spike". So far, Gold has merely found a new "trading range".
$US 300 remains the wall that Gold must break through. It would be difficult to buy an ounce of PHYSICAL Gold for less than $US 300 in the U.S. right now, but if you want a paper claim to Gold for less than $US 300, you can still get buy those.
Which one would you say represents the more real MARKET for Gold right now? We are watching financial manipulation in ALL the paper markets, including the Gold paper markets. The monetary "authorities" have decided they have no other choice. We don't know how long it will take. We DO know that a new BULL market in Gold requires a $US 300 plus PAPER (or "spot future) Gold price.