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Gold Bottom Commentary - February 1, 2002

On the weekly bar chart - and on the point and figure chart - support lies between $US 277-280.".
(The Gold Bottom last week)

The charts to the left are what is known in Australia as "BOTTLERS"! If something is good in OZ, you "bottle" it. And the better it is, the more of a "bottler" it is.

First and most obvious - it should jump off the page and bite you on the daily bar and the P&F charts - the $US Gold UPTREND has once again been CONFIRMED. Gold is up $US 6.90 this week - $US 3.90 of that on February 1. The support (see the quote above) has held, and now Gold is heading UP - with increasing speed - yet again.

As a final example of the UP channel confirmation, look at the longer-term weekly bar chart. You can immediately see that most of the falls of the past two weeks (don't forget, the BoE Gold auction was on January 16) have been wiped out this week. The intraday high on spot future Gold on February 1 was $US 287.50. That's only $US 1.20 lower than the highest intraday high so far this year - $US 288.70 set on January 10.

Technically, the number one adage, true in ALL markets, is that the TREND IS YOUR FRIEND. The trend in $US Gold is UP. The trend in Gold in all other major currencies is UP. The difference is that the uptrends in most of the other currencies is steeper than the uptrend in $US Gold.

It's fascinating to listen to many people who are interested in and knowledgeable about Gold. Most of them will acknowledge the Gold uptrend, but they are wary, they don't think it can last. Most of them will acknowledge the uptrend of most Gold stocks, but they don't think the $US price of Gold has risen enough to "justify" the gains in the Gold stocks. They see the uptrends but keep expecting the "Gold manipulators" to stomp on the price. And finally, they are sure that the price will be stomped on as soon as they buy some Gold or buy some Gold stocks or buy some more Gold/gold stocks.

A lot of these same people had no such fears about the stock markets while they were trending up. Indeed, most of them hung on long after the uptrend was broken. It had been going up so long that it JUST HAD to keep going up. The attitude to Gold is the opposite. It's been "going down" so long that this uptrend must be a mirage, or worse, a bull trap.

So far, all those who have been "trapped" by the Gold uptrend are doing just fine. And you literally CANNOT lose in physical Gold as long as the uptrend is intact. It is intact, and it has just been re-confirmed.

Again, plus $US 300 is necessary to turn this uptrend into a genuine bull market. Gold spent the first half of January going up WITH the U.S. Dollar. It spent the last half going down very slowly against a RAMPANT U.S. Dollar. And now, it is going up again, as the Dollar gives the first signs that it might be faltering in its upwards rush

Technically, $US Gold just keeps on improving. Yes, we know it has been "slow", but that has given everyone plenty of time to get involved. All uptrends speed up at some point, and $US 300 is a formidable barrier. We'll see for how much longer. Stay tuned.

©2002 The Privateer Market Letter
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