The three charts on this page all tell exactly the same story: Gold in $US terms is in a bull market (just as it is in terms of every other major currency). You can see the steep uptrends on all charts, and the fact that Gold is hitting new highs on all charts. But to get a comprehensive view of the situation, you need to consult a longer-term chart.
This is (almost) the entire bottom formation since Gold broke below $US 300 in November 1997 on a weekly bar chart basis (click on the link, already 
). You can see the 1999 and 2000 spikes - with the highest intraday price reached on the spot future contract during those spikes. Now, note the current spot future Gold intraday high - $US 328.00 set on May 31. Before May 31, 2002, the intraday peak on the spot future Gold contract post November 1997 was $US 327.50 set on October 5, 1999. The May 31, 2002 intraday high beat that - by fifty cents.
Fifty cents is not a decisive amount. What is necessary is for Gold to trade intraday at levels ABOVE $US 330. When (not if) it does that, the entire bottom formation stretching back to late 1997 will finally be complete. Once $US Gold decisively breaks above that HIGHEST point achieved during the entire bottom formation, it is all UP from there.
Now, let's look at an even longer-term Gold chart - the monthly bar chart back to 1975. The chart is based on spot future Gold CLOSING prices. There is a single feature on this chart that should leap off the screen and grab you immediately. Take a look at the far right bar - for May 2002. Then note the downtrend line drawn through the 1980 Gold high of $US 850 (Gold's $US all time high) and the 1996 Gold bull high of $US 414. You can see that Gold has BROKEN ABOVE this trendline - a trendline stretching back MORE THAN TWENTY-TWO YEARS!
This is a BIG deal. There is no longer trendline than the downtrend line which is anchored at Gold's $US 850 all time high set back at the beginning of 1980. With Gold now ABOVE it, we have much more than the end of a long bottom formation on our hands, we have the start of what promises to be an historic Gold BULL.
Now, before you think that Gold has already climbed a long way (from its $US 255 low in April 2001), let us remind you about our Gold commentary last week. In it, we made two very important points.
First: Last Friday (May 24), spot future Gold closed at $US 320.70. At that point, Gold had not yet reached the BOTTOM of its previous bear market in 1993. In March 1993, spot future Gold bottomed at $US 325.80 before soaring to just above the $US 400 level in August 1993. Now, spot future Gold has made it above that 1993 Gold BOTTOM - but only just.
Second: Thus far in this bull market (on a closing price basis) spot future Gold has risen from $US 253.00 (in August 1999) to its May 31 level of $US 326.50. That's a gain of $US 73.50 or 29.05%. That gain is already bigger, in percentage terms, than the gain from the whole 1993-96 Gold BULL market which saw the spot future price climb from $US 325.80 to $US 414. That was a gain of $US 88.20 or 27.07%.
Put these two together. First, Gold has just today (May 31, 2002) climbed above its 1993 Gold bear market LOW. In doing so, Gold has gained more to this point than it did during its ENTIRE 1993-96 bull market. Gold has done VERY well to this point, but it is just getting started.
We know that many readers of these pages are getting quite excited by Gold's performance. We also know that you are being inundated with opinions/analyses/technical indicators/charts etc. etc. May we suggest that while all the minutia is interesting, it will serve you well to keep your eyes firmly fixed on the BIGGER picture. That's why longer-term charts are so useful, especially at historical turning points like the one that Gold is now going through.
If we had to pick two indicators to follow, they would be the simple fact that $US Gold is in an unbroken uprend which is more than a year old and that it has just broken above a 22-YEAR OLD downtrend. The rest is just icing on the cake.
We are now happily sitting back and waiting for Gold to break through its next hurdle, which is the $US 330 level. Whether it takes a day, a week, or a month, the LONG TERM trends tell us that it WILL happen. Sit back and enjoy the ride.