Last week, we published tables comparing the relative performances of Gold, the U.S. Dollar (and the Dow) since Gold breached $US 300 on March 27. This week, and especially in light on the kamikaze attack on Gold on the Comex in late trading on June 28, we have updated the tables.
Now, here are the relative performances of $US Gold, the $US Index, and the Dow since Gold broke above $US 300 on March 27:
Here are last week's tables
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If Gold's gain had exactly mirrored the loss on the $US index since March 27, Gold would have closed on June 28 at $US 333.60. That's almost exactly $US 20 HIGHER than where Gold actually closed on June 28.
Here's another perspective - a comparison between Gold's 2002 low and its present price and the $US index 2002 high and its present "price". All data is on CLOSING levels:
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As you can see, Gold is still further above its 2002 low in percentage terms than the $US index is below its 2002 high. The gap has narrowed greatly however.
Here's an analysis from the floor of Comex Gold trading on June 28 - especially LATE on June 28:
"Persistant investment bank selling amid low volume trade triggered resting sell orders just below the $US 315 level within the last 10 minutes of trading. ...Dealers noted that steady bank selling had hampered gold throughout the week and denied bullion much in the way of an extended positive response to the flagging equity markets and U.S. Dollar throughout the week". (Source of quote)
Very diplomatic, wouldn't you say
Of course, the manipulation is transparently blatant. For the past three weeks, Gold has NOT done what it could have been expected to do given the weakness on markets and the falling U.S. Dollar. But there was a G-7 meeting on June 15-16, the FOMC met on June 25-26, and the G-8 met on June 26-27. Any REAL ructions on financial markets had to be avoided while all that was going on. The amount of angst on the markets which HAS taken place is testimony to how serious the situation actually is. So is the attack on Gold on June 28.
On the charts, you can see that trendlines have been breached on the daily and weekly bar charts and that Gold has fallen very close to its short-term (20 week) moving average on the weekly chart. On the point and figure chart, Gold remains above the top of its upchannel and has now come back to support at around the $US 312-314 area.
Please scroll up to the top of this analysis and click on the link labelled "Monthly bar chart back to 1975". In May, Gold broke ABOVE the trendline connecting the all time high of January 1980 and the last bull market high set in February 1996. In other words - GOLD BROKE ABOVE A TWENTY-TWO YEAR TRENDLINE! You can BET that the financial powers that be noticed that.
(The Gold Bull Market - June 7)
We can only repeat what we stated three weeks ago. Breaking through a TWENTY-TWO YEAR OLD TRENDLINE is a BIG deal. It is seldom/ever done without some friction. Here's the "friction".
And finally, here's one final perspective, comparing Gold's 2002 high set on June 4 with its level today.
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If the action on spot future $US Gold had "mirrored" the action on the $US index since June 4, then Gold would be 4.15% ABOVE its June 4 level of $US 327.80. That would put Gold at $US 341.40. If that had happened, there would have been NO doubt in anyone's mind that Gold was in a BULL market. On top of that, there would be only one direction anticipated for future $US Gold prices and that would have been UP.
Instead, most investors are trying desperately to identify ANYTHING that promises to go up. We'll see how long that lasts.