In intraday trade on Monday, September 9, spot future Gold climbed all the way up the $US 324.90 in New York before closing at $US 321.70. That was where the current upmove stopped, as you can see on the daily bar chart to the left. For the rest of the week, Gold has been slowly subsiding again. It closed on Friday at $US 317.00 - down $US 3.40 on the week.
As you can see, Gold has moving up steadily ever since it dipped briefly back below the $US 300 level in intraday trading on August 1. First it established itself back above $US 310. Now it is trying to establish itself back above $US 320. But it has yet to establish itself above the intraday high of $US 329.70 it hit back on June 4 - more than three months ago.
Here are the relative performances of $US Gold, the $US Index, and the Dow since Gold broke above $US 300 on March 27:
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If Gold's gain had exactly mirrored the loss on the $US index since March 27, Gold would have closed on September 13 at $US 329.80.
Look at the performance of Gold compared to the performance of the $US or the Dow (or the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq) since Gold breached $US 300 back in March. As you can see, there is absolutely no contest. As an investment, and more importantly in present circumstances as a preserver of capital, Gold has trashed paper investments this year. Despite the fact that Gold is still lower than it was three months ago, its annual performance continues to far outstrip those of "paper" investments.
Here's another perspective - a comparison between Gold's 2002 low and its present price and the $US index 2002 high and its present "price". All data is on CLOSING levels:
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On the daily bar chart, the 10-day moving average has jumped back above the 20-day moving average with the Gold price just below the shorter-term average. On the weekly bar chart, Gold has held just above its shorter-term 20 week moving average. And on the point and figure chart, Gold has rebounded from the TOP of its post April 2001 upchannel for the second time - and then turned down at its first attempt to get above the $US 320 level.
And finally, here's one final perspective, comparing Gold's 2002 high closing level set on June 4 with its level today.
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Last week, the percentage fall in Gold since it hit its 2002 high on June 4 was less than the percentage fall of the $US index over the same period. That has been reversed once again this week. If the action on spot future $US Gold had "mirrored" the action on the $US index since June 4, then Gold would be 2.79% ABOVE its June 4 level of $US 327.80. That would put Gold at $US 337.00.
"Gold has had a very good week this week, rising $US 7.60. It's spot future close of $US 320.40 on September 6 was its highest close since June 26. As the stock market "recovery" of late July - early August continues to falter, Gold continues to climb towards its early June highs. Another week like the one just finished would bring it right back to those highs."
(Gold Bull Market - September 6)
That's what we said here last week. And of course, by the middle of the trading day on Monday, September 9, Gold was only $US 2.90 below its June 4 closing level and only $US 4.90 below its June 4 intraday high. But that's as high as it got this week. We're still waiting, and unlike Mr Bush, we are genuinely "patient men".