This was the week that Gold "almost made it". On September 24, spot future Gold closed at $US 326. It's 2002 high is $US 327.80 set on June 4. But by the end of the week, Gold had once again been tucked "safely" just below the $US 320 level. Meanwhile, the US Dollar has been running on the spot. Two weeks ago, the $US index closed at 108.06. Last week, it closed at 108.10. And on September 27, the $US index fell 0.20 point on the day to close at 107.95
Here are the relative performances of $US Gold, the $US Index, and the Dow since Gold broke above $US 300 on March 27:
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If Gold's gain had exactly mirrored the loss on the $US index since March 27, Gold would have closed on September 27 at $US 330.10.
As you can see on this table, the Dow has now lost more than ONE QUARTER of its value since Gold breached $US 300 in late March. From its all time high of 11723 set in January 2000, the Dow is now down by 34.31%. Gold fell from $US 414 in February 1996 to $US 253 in September 1999. that's a fall of 38.89%. As you can see, the Dow is catching up fast. And the Dow is in a bear market. Gold isn't, it confirmed its bottom in May 2001 and its bull Market in March 2002.
Here's another perspective - a comparison between Gold's 2002 low and its present price and the $US index 2002 high and its present "price". All data is on CLOSING levels:
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On the daily bar chart, Gold is now wedged between its 10 and 20 day moving averages and is conforming to an uptrend which has been in place ever since it went below $US 300 - to $US 298 intraday - back on August 1. On the weekly bar chart, Gold has spent the entire week trading above its shorter-term (20 week) moving average for the first time since late July. And on the point and figure chart, Gold has come within one "x" of its 2002 high.
And finally, here's one final perspective, comparing Gold's 2002 high closing level set on June 4 with its level today.
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Gold's percentage fall since its hit its 2002 high is still less than the equivalent percentage fall on the $US index. But Gold is still down since June 4, not up. If the action on spot future $US Gold had "mirrored" the action on the $US index since June 4, then Gold would be 2.89% ABOVE its June 4 level of $US 327.80. That would put Gold at $US 337.30.
Three weeks ago, on September 6, spot future Gold closed at $US 320.40. This week, on September 27, spot future Gold closed at $US 319.70 - a move of less than $US 1.00. Given what has been happening around Gold since Labor Day, this is nothing short of miraculous. We see no reason to change what we signed off with last week: "This is truly a battle royal. Stay tuned.