Last week, Gold was frozen on the Comex at $US 316.80 from November 27 to 29, the Thanksgiving Holiday period intervening. This week, Gold has had its best week for months, rising $US 9.50 to be once again within touching distance of its 2002 highs.
From intraday low to intraday high this week, spot future Comex Gold has leaped $US 12.50 from an intraday low of $US 315.50 on December 2 to an intraday high of $US 328.00 on December 6. December 2 was the day when the US Dollar temporarily surged and the Dow temporarily exceeded its July/August rally top. The Dow/$US gains were wiped out by the end of trading on December 2, and what had been a $US 1.30 loss became an $US 0.80 gain for Gold. Since December 2, the Dow has kept on falling and Gold has kept on rising. The $US moved very little - until December 6 - when the $US index lost 0.81 points.
Here are the relative performances of $US Gold, the $US Index, and the Dow since Gold broke above $US 300 on March 27:
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While Gold's percentage gain on this table has leaped this week, it is still quite a bit smaller than the percentage loss on the $US index over the same period. If Gold's gain had exactly mirrored the loss on the $US index since March 27, Gold would have closed on December 6 at $US 336.60.
You can see here that the "projected" Gold price, if Gold had proportionally reacted to $US weakness since March 27, it would have long since breached the $US 330 level. $US 330 is, of course, the "glass ceiling" which has been in place on the $US Gold price ever since it hit its 2002 high ($US 327.80 spot future basis) on June 4.
Here's another perspective - a comparison between Gold's 2002 low and its present price and the $US index 2002 high and its present "price". All data is on CLOSING levels:
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On the daily bar chart, Gold has surged back above both (10 and 20 day) moving averages this week. On the weekly bar chart, the comparative inaction of the past four weeks has been abruptly broken this week as Gold surged back towards its 2002 highs. The point and figure chart has, of course, turned up this week and stands one "x" below its 2002 high.
And finally, here's one final perspective, comparing Gold's 2002 high closing level set on June 4 with its level today.
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Gold is now within 0.50% of its June 4 2002 high while the $US index has lost over 5% from its level on theday when Gold set its 2002 high. If the action on spot future $US Gold had "mirrored" the action on the $US index since June 4, then Gold would be 5.20% ABOVE its June 4 level of $US 327.80. That would put Gold at $US 344.90.
As all the charts above show, Gold is on the verge of cracking above its glass ceiling of $US 330. Once it does, we would expect the actual Gold price in the table above to catch up with the projected Gold price derived by the fall of the $US index very quickly. You have been warned.