At the beginning of 2002, this page was still titled "Gold BOTTOM Commentary". That changed in mid February 2002 the title was changed "Bottom Or Bull Market?". And finally on May 3, 2002 the title was changed to its present one "The Gold BULL MARKET This Week".
We think this is a pretty good guide to the progress of Gold over the past year. And as we enter 2003, we expect to keep our present title - THE GOLD BULL MARKET THIS WEEK - for a long time to come.
As you can see on the charts to the left, 2003 has begun with yet another Gold surge, this one taking Gold above the $US 350 level. After a December which contributed half of Gold's entire gain for 2002, 2003 has started off with yet another milestone, and all the charts have improved accordingly..
Since we won't be writing about a "Gold bottom" this year, take a minute to study this Gold Bottom chart (it will open in a new window). Note that the START of the bottom was the "Washington Agreement" spike of late 1999 and the end did not come until Gold had retreated back to its 1999 lows in Feb/April 2001. This is pretty standard for a long-running Gold bear market, especially one which has broken below a level ($US 300) which had supported Gold for nearly two decades.
Note further that ever since Gold began to climb from its April 2001 lows, there has never been any technical reason to sell it. Every high was higher, every low was higher. And once Gold finally and difinitively broke above $US 300 to stay in March this year, the longer-term (40 week) moving average has been challenged but never broken. Now, of course, the uptrend is firmly in place and Gold is challenging its TOP. A break ABOVE this upchannel would signal a further acceleration of the Gold price. Gold is now on the verge of doing just that.
Here are the relative performances of $US Gold, the $US Index, and the Dow since Gold broke above $US 300 on March 27:
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It is still less than a month since Gold's percentage gain from late March 2002 has been bigger than the fall of the US Dollar index over the same period. So far, Gold has been merely "catching up" with the fall of the Dollar. This year, it should forge ahead.
Here's another perspective - a comparison between Gold's 2002 low and its present price and the $US index 2002 high and its present "price". All data is on CLOSING levels:
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As you can see, Gold has risen quite a bit more from its 2002 low than the $US index has fallen from its 2002 high. The $US index has now well and truly broken its post 1995 uptrend line. In 2003, it has nowhere to go but DOWN.
A Happy New Year to all. 2002 has certainly been one. 2003 is the year when we gleefully begin to follow the first full year of Gold's BULL MARKET. We expect to enjoy the ride thoroughly. It has begun very well.