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Gold Commentary - January 8, 2010


Has Any Market Gone Up Every Year For A Decade?

In particular, any MAJOR market? We must admit we do not know but if one has, it would be a rare occurrence. As we said here last week:

"...2009 marks the ninth straight year in which Gold has gone up in US Dollar terms. Here's the record:

So far so good for 2010, although a week certainly does not a year make. Over the first week of 2010 - January 4 - 8 - the spot future price of Gold rose from $US 1096.20 to $1138.90. That's up $US 42.70 or 4.0 percent. Over the corresponding week in 2009, Gold actually fell $US 29.30 or 3.3 percent. Yet as you can see from the list above, 2009 was the third best year for $US Gold in percentage terms since the start of the bull market.

The $US 5 x 5 Gold Point And Figure Chart:

This chart is based on daily CLOSING prices

(Chart appears here in original analysis)

A new low was hit on the chart when spot future Gold closed in New York at $US 705 on November 13 last year. This pushed the chart two "Xs" below the $US 715 support level established in late October and equalled early in November. Then came the first big turnaround - and upturn on the chart - of November 14. The region between $US 700-720 firmed as SOLID support for Gold. That support "zone" was emphatically confirmed as Gold rose by just over $US 110 between November 13 and November 28 last year.

On February 20, as you know, Gold made it all the way back to the $US 1000 level. But it did NOT break through the $US 1000 barrier. Until this week, what had been traced out on this chart is the right shoulder of a gigantic "reverse" head and shoulders formation. But on September 16, spot future Gold CLOSED at $US 1020.20. That breaks decisively above the $US 1000 "double top" on this chart and revalidates the entire bull market - from the bottom. Late in September, had the downturn on the chart, only to see Gold burst above its September 16 high to put the final re-validation on the entire $US bull market in early October. The correction over the month of December 2009 gave just over half of those gains back. And over the first week of 2010, the chart above turned UP again.


In February 2009, spot future Gold closed above the $US 1000 level for the second time. While the close did not quite equal that of March 2008 in $US terms, it set new all time highs in terms of many other currencies - the Yen being an exception. That was because of the recovery of the US Dollar which had taken place since March 2008.

On September 11, 2009, spot future Gold closed above the $US 1000 level for the third time. It has remained above the $US 1000 level continually since the end of September and rose more than $US 200 almost straight up before the December 4 correction. Now, almost a month later, a bit more than half that rise has been given back.

Gold In Four Major Currencies Since The February 20, 2009 $US High
Currency Feb 20, 2009 Jan 8, 2010 Up/DownPercent
US Dollar1002.201138.90+136.70+13.64%
Jap. Yen94410106410+12000+12.71%
Euro796.00790.40-5.60-0.70%
Aus. Dollar1571.601245.50-326.10-20.75%

Gold priced in Japanese Yen has joined $US Gold in the plus column. After getting into the plus column as the $US Gold price peaked, the Euro Gold price has slipped back into the "red" since early December. The most "extreme" example remains the Aussie Dollar Gold price. at current (January 8, 2010) exchange rates, it would take a Gold price of $US 1437.00 for the Aussie Gold price to equal the all time high it set on February 20, 2009.


A quote from the latest Privateer
©2010 The Privateer Market Letter

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